U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Will China's Challenge Lead to a Crisis?

Description

Anxiety about China’s growing military capabilities to threaten Taiwan has induced alarm in Washington about whether the United States remains capable of deterring attempts to seize Taiwan by force. This alarm has fed American impulses to alter longstanding policy, and to increasingly view challenges confronting Taiwan through a military lens. While Taiwan clearly is under growing military threat, it also is facing a simultaneous and intensifying Chinese political campaign to wear down the will of the Taiwan people. This latter line of effort receives less attention, but left unaddressed, has the potential to do far more damage to American interests. This book rightsizes the risks confronting Taiwan by taking a holistic view of China’s national ambitions and Taiwan’s role in them, China’s strategies for pursuing unification with Taiwan, and America’s most effective responses. Contrary to many other books on the market, the authors make the case for why conflict in the Taiwan Strait is not preordained, and in fact, it would be strategic folly for the United States to conclude that conflict is inescapable. Hass, Bush, and Glaser argue that the center of gravity for determining the future of Taiwan is the will of Taiwan’s 23 million people. American policy should focus on their hopes and fears if the United States wishes to maintain influence over events in the Taiwan Strait. This calls for American resoluteness and steadiness of purpose in fortifying Taiwan’s economic dynamism, political autonomy, military preparedness, and dignity and respect on the world stage. Maintaining credible military deterrence is the minimum threshold, not the measure of success. U.S.-Taiwan Relations will be an invaluable resource for students, researchers, and journalists to understand this critical moment in U.S. foreign policy. Cover Half Title Title Page Copyright Page Contents Introduction Evaluating the Challenge Recommendations Going Forward Notes Chapter 1: The Historical Background of the Current Conflict From the Seventeenth Century to 1894 Japan on Taiwan and Civil War in China: 1895–1941 Pearl Harbor to the Korean War The Korean War to Normalization of U.S.-PRC Relations Dueling Over Unification and Independence Devising a Unification Formula Revisiting Taiwan Arms Sales Cross-Strait Economic Relations Wild Card: Taiwan’s Democratization Beginning Political Contacts with Beijing Arms Sales Again Steps Forward, Then Steps Back Temporary Stabilization Tensions Rise Again The 2000 Election Season Chen Shui-bian Alienates the Bush Administration The Ma Ying-jeou Administration Conclusion Notes Chapter 2: U.S.-Taiwan Relations from 2016 to Present Tussle over the “1992 Consensus” The PRC’s Use of Coercion Xi Jinping’s Taiwan Strategy U.S. Policy toward Taiwan under Trump How Tsai Ing-wen Managed Relations with the United States in the Trump Era Biden Inherits Tense U.S.-China and Cross-Strait Relationships Biden Administration Policy toward Taiwan Is Strategic Ambiguity Outdated? Speaker Pelosi Travels to Taiwan Conclusion Notes Chapter 3: Charting the Future of U.S.-Taiwan Relations America’s Top Interests and Objectives in Taiwan Future Cross-Strait Scenarios and Implications for American Interests Economic Scenarios Taiwan Deepens Economic Dependence on China Deglobalization and U.S.-China Economic Decoupling Lead to Taiwan’s Growing Isolation Political-Military Scenarios Negotiated Political Settlement between Taiwan and the PRC Adaptation of Status Quo China Initiates Limited Military Action against Taiwan to Bolster Its “Red Lines” Conflict Precipitated by Taiwan Declaration of De Jure Independence PRC-Initiated Military Conflict in the Taiwan Strait The Twin Threats to Taiwan’s Security The Military Threat Sharpening Deterrence Options Political-Military Campaign Planning Bolstering Taiwan’s Deterrence Capabilities The Political Threat Policy Options for Responding to Coercion without Violence Recalling America’s Role in Preserving Cross-Strait Peace and Stability Notes Further Reading JOINT COMMUNIQUÉ ON THE ESTABLISHMENT OF DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA JOINT COMMUNIQUÉ ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA(AUGUST 17, 1982) An Act FINDINGS AND DECLARATION OF POLICY IMPLEMENTATION OF UNITED STATES POLICY WITH REGARD TO TAIWAN APPLICATION OF LAWS; INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS OVERSEAS PRIVATE INVESTMENT CORPORATION THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF TAIWAN SERVICES BY THE INSTITUTE TO UNITED STATES CITIZENS ON TAIWAN TAX EXEMPT STATUS OF THE INSTITUTE FURNISHING PROPERTY AND SERVICES TO AND OBTAINING SERVICES FROM THE INSTITUTE TAIWAN INSTRUMENTALITY SEPARATION OF GOVERNMENT PERSONNEL FOR EMPLOYMENT WITH THE INSTITUTE REPORTING REQUIREMENT RULES AND REGULATIONS CONGRESSIONAL OVERSIGHT DEFINITIONS AUTHORIZATION OF APPROPRIATIONS SEVERABILITY OF PROVISIONS EFFECTIVE DATE Index About the Authors