Development Prospects for North Korea

Description

The contributors to this book explore the current situation of North Korea in various aspects and provide policy suggestions for North Korea to become part of the international community and achieve sustainable development. Focusing on three key areas of economic development, namely, international sectors, agriculture and urban development, and energy and environment, this book lays out recommendations and prospects for North Korea. Authors assess the current situation of North Korea, explore preconditions for becoming a member of the international community, and suggest policies necessary for the sustainable development of North Korea. They cover a wide range of areas including reforestation, WTO accession, and the potential for economic integration with South Korea. These evaluations draw on both what is understood about the current situation in North Korea and comparisons with other countries and territories. This book will be a valuable resource for scholars and policy planners who focus on North Korea. Cover Half Title Series Title Copyright Contents Preface List of figures List of tables List of abbreviations, acronyms, symbols, and units List of contributors Acknowledgement Part I Macroeconomic perspective 1 Reformation open-door policy and development proposals for North Korea 1 Introduction 2 Concept transition (system transformation) and outcome/performance 2.1 Concept of transition 2.2 Comparison of economic performances of transition countries 2.3 Economic outcomes of East Asian transition countries 3 Reform toward an open-door policy for North Korea and its prospects 3.1 Existing research on economic effects and limitations 3.2 Comprehensive direction for reform and the opening up of North Korea’s economy 4 Economic policy recommendations 2 Economic characteristics and prospects for economic development of North Korea 1 Introduction 2 Endowed resource conditions and characteristics of North Korea 2.1 Agricultural resources 2.2 Mineral resources 2.3 Hydroelectric resources 2.4 Human resources 2.5 Geographic location 3 Basic characteristics of the economy in North Korea 3.1 Vulnerable drives for economic growth 3.2 Formation of dual economic structures 3.3 High external economic dependency 4 Transition of development routes and prospects for economic development of North Korea 4.1 Background on the transition of development routes 4.2 Two aspects of economic construction of North Korea 4.3 Prospects for economic development of North Korea 5 Conclusion 3 North Korea’s marketization in the Kim Jong-un era: facts, evaluation, and outlook 1 Introduction 2 Current status of marketization in the Kim Jong-un era 2.1 Expansion of existing markets 2.2 The creation and expansion of new markets 2.3 The expansion of private enterprise: progress in de facto privatization 3 Characteristics and evaluation of North Korean marketization 3.1 Hierarchical structure of North Korean marketization 3.2 Institutionalization and grey zone policy of North Korean marketization 3.3 The emergence of domestic markets 3.4 Expansion of linkage between state economy and marketization 3.5 Evolution of North Korean authorities’ perception of the market 3.6 Characteristics and limitations of North Korean marketization 4 Conclusion 4 The economic effects of integration of South and North Korea 1 Introduction 2 The CGE model 3 Model setup and scenarios 3.1 KIEP (2011) 3.2 Sung (2014) 4 Result of analyses 4.1 KIEP (2011) 4.2 Sung (2014) 4.3 Results of KIEP (2011) and Sung (2014) compared 5 Conclusion 5 Industrial structure and development strategy in North Korea 1 Introduction 2 Economic development strategy and industrial structure in North Korea 2.1 An overview of economic development strategies in North Korea: from the liberation until present day 2.2 The transition of industrial structure in North Korea: from the liberation until present day 3 North Korea’s future development strategy and industrial structure 3.1 North Korea’s future economic development strategy 3.1.1 Conditions for economic development: capital, markets, and comparative advantage 3.1.2 The pace of economic development: catch-up and leapfrogging development 3.2 North Korea’s future industrial structure 3.2.1 Light industry 3.2.2 IT industry 4 Summary and conclusion 6 Financing the reform and opening of North Korea: what is the precondition? 1 Introduction 2 Transition to market economy and financing: the case of Vietnam 2.1 The process of reform, opening, and financing in Vietnam 2.1.1 Lifting of US sanctions against Vietnam 2.1.2 Normalization of diplomatic relations (July 1995), ratification of the US-Vietnam trade agreement (2001), and accession to the WTO (November 2006, 150th member country) 2.2 Implications for North Korea in financing 2.2.1 The impact of international sanctions against North Korea 2.3 Normalization of US-North Korean relations and the accession to international financial institutions 3 A system for attracting private investment from the international community 3.1 The task of reforming the financial sector 3.1.1 Establishment of a market-oriented, two-tiered banking system and readjustment of non-performing loans 3.1.2 Reform of the exchange rate system 3.1.3 Problems related to inflation 3.1.4 Accessibility to international payment and settlement networks 4 Conclusion 7 Effect of WTO accession on North Korea and its implication for economic development 1 Introduction 2 The meaning of North Korea’s WTO accession and its process 3 The effect of WTO accession on North Korea 3.1 Impact on trade 3.2 Impact on FDI 3.3 North Korea’s system reform 4 North Korea’s essential prerequisite for WTO accession and policy implications 5 Conclusion Part II Sectoral approach and strategy 8 Analysis of North Korea’s agricultural revolution after economic crisis 1 Introduction 2 Agricultural reformation in Kim Jong-il’s era 2.1 The legacy of Kim Il-sung and the basis for new agricultural conditions 2.2 Agriculture reformation measures of the 1990s 2.2.1 Improving the distribution of the new sub-work team management (NSTM) system 2.2.2 Assessment of the NSTM system 2.2.3 Economic reform measures in the 2000s: 7.1 economic management improvement measures 3 Reformation and opening in the Kim Jong-un era 3.1 Reformation in the agricultural production sector 3.2 Efforts to attract agricultural investments through the open door 3.3 Evaluation of agricultural reform and opening policy in the Kim Jong-un era 4 Conclusion 9 Innovative urban planning and development for Pyongyang through collaboration with developed cities 1 Introduction 2 A brief analysis of urban planning and development in Seoul, Singapore, and Pyongyang 2.1 Urbanization of the cities after the 1950s–1960s 2.2 History of urban planning and development in the cities 2.3 Character of existing urban structure in the city centers 3 C2C collaboration by Pyongyang with other cities utilizing urban planning and development experiences of Singapore and Seoul 3.1 C2C (city-to-city) approach 3.2 Lessons learned from Singapore and Seoul 3.2.1 Land use planning 3.2.2 Development control 3.2.3 Urban design 3.2.4 Building conservation 3.2.5 Land sales 3.2.6 Carpark management 3.3 Strategies of urban planning and development collaborations from experiences of Singapore and Seoul 4 Conclusion 10 Projections on North Korea’s energy use and CO2 emissions 1 Introduction 2 North Korea’s energy, economic, and social situations 2.1 Economic and social conditions 2.2 Energy situation 3 Methodology and analysis 3.1 LMDI-Kaya identity decomposition 3.2 Analysis 4 Energy supply and CO2 emissions projection of North Korea 4.1 Projection of North Korea’s energy supply 4.2 Projection of North Korea’s CO2 emissions 4.3 North Korea’s voluntary emissions reduction targets 5 Conclusion 11 The Paris Agreement and North Korea’s sustainable development 1 Introduction 2 The Paris Agreement and sustainable development 3 North Korea’s response to climate change 3.1 North Korea’s international cooperation in the environmental sector 3.2 North Korea’s clean development mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol 4 Opportunities for North Korea’s sustainable development and climate change actions 4.1 Mechanisms of the PA for supporting climate actions in developing countries 4.2 Climate change response cooperation between the two Koreas through a cooperative approach and carbon market integration 5 Conclusion 12 Impact of forest degradation in North Korea and restoration methodology 1 Introduction 2 Current Status of forest and degraded land in North Korea 3 Cases and impact of degraded forest in North Korea 3.1 Denuded land increasing by energy scarcity 3.2 Cultivated forest growth resulting from food shortage 3.3 Impact for forest ecosystem services according to deforestation 4 Restoration methods for degraded forest in North Korea 4.1 Restoration of degraded forest and ecosystem services (water-food-energy stability) 4.1.1 Degradation phase 4.1.2 Restoration phase 4.1.3 Sustainability phase 4.2 Prior preparation for a forest restoration project in North Korea 4.3 Methods of restoration in North Korea 5 International cooperation to restore degraded forest in North Korea 5.1 International cooperation connecting global issues with forest restoration in North Korea 5.2 Multilateral cooperation between North Korea, South Korea, and international organizations 5.3 International cooperation project led by an inter-Korean cooperation 6 Conclusion Index