Hindsight in Greek and Roman History

Description

One of the most fertile and fast-developing themes of recent historiography is treated by the 10 new papers in this volume. The history of the ancient world has traditionally been studied with a view to tracing the origins of those grand developments which eventually occurred. The writing of history is often simplified, by modern scholars as by some ancient sources, so as to read almost teleologically. `Who', it may have been asked, `wants to understand what did not happen?' But the most respected of our ancient sources, Herodotos, Thucydides, Tacitus and others, frequently describe the actors in their narratives as guided by fears and hopes concerning developments which did not happen, or by reflection on events which had happened but which subsequently did not play out as anticipated. As Tacitus wrote of Boudicca's revolt, the Britons were motivated by past Roman offences `and the fear of worse'. Such - superficially - sterile, even vague, expectations tend to be neglected in scholarly discourse. But not only were unfulfilled expectations facts in themselves; they generated real actions. Further, even real and quite grand events - such as a battle won in a campaign eventually unsuccessful - are likely to be neglected if they do not seem to have led to larger developments still: in short, if they are inconvenient for a grand narrative or a syllabus. Yet, history cannot be understood without such things. Restoring them to their due prominence offers scope for a wide-ranging scholarly activity which is not only legitimate but necessary. Contents Preface and Acknowledgements Introduction 1 Historical Explanation and What Didn’t Happen: the Virtues of Virtual History 2 Herodotos and the Avoidance of Hindsight 3 Athens’ Sicilian Expedition: Contemporary Scenarios of Its Outcome 4 the Shadow of What Might Have Been: Sideshadowing in Thucydides and Xenophon 5 Spartan Supremacy: a ‘possession for Ever’? Early-fourth-century Expectations of Enduring Ascendancy 6 Confusing Aim and Result? Hindsight and the Disintegration of Alexander the Great’s Empire 7 How to Avoid Being a Backward-looking Prophet – Counterfactuals in Polybius 8 Anticipating Octavian’s Failure: from Tauromenium to the Death of Cleopatra 9 Memoriae Eximere: AD 41 and the Survival of Republicanism Under the Principate Index