The China–US Trade War and South Asian Economies

Description

The USA and China, the world’s largest economic powers, have been engaging in trade war since January 2018. The impact of this trade war is felt not only by US and China but also by other economies who have economic ties with them. This book provides insights into damages caused by this trade war. The first section of the book looks at the impact of the trade war on the global economy. It goes deeper to examine the trade war impact on the South Asian region. It is well-known that any imposition of new tariffs or an increase in existing tariffs would make imports more costly and render the exported goods less competitive. Yet, the book posits that the trade war has provided a window of opportunity to other countries not caught in it. The South Asian region, with countries like Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka, has actually reaped benefits from the widening trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies. This book will be a useful reference to help policymakers to undertake informed decisions and initiate programs to minimise the trade war impact. Cover Half Title Series Information Title Page Copyright Page Table of contents List of Figures List of Tables List of Contributors Acknowledgements Abbreviations Introduction 1 The background 2 The timeline of the trade war so far 3 Assessing the impact of the conflict 4 Prelude to the chapters Notes References Part I US–China trade war 1 Global economic impact of US–China trade tensions 1 Introduction 2 Literature review 3 Methodology 4 Results and conclusions Note References 2 US–China trade war: A new order or a secular decline of economic outlook? 1 Introduction 2 US–China and the share of global trade 3 The upsurge of China: the sequential context 4 US trade deficit with China: a billion-plus growing market 5 Implications for the US policy 6 Global value chains (GVCs): transition from crisis to opportunity 7 Concluding reflections: new realignment and possible consequences Note References 3 US–China trade war: An analysis of trade relations 1 Introduction 2 US–China trade war: probable reasons 3 Trade data: some preliminary analyses 4 USA’s trade with China, South Asia, and South-East Asian countries 4.1 US imports from China, Hong Kong, South Asia, and South-East Asia 4.2 US exports to China, Hong Kong, South Asia, and South-East Asia 5 China’s trade with USA, South and South-East Asian countries 5.1 China’s imports from USA, South and South-East Asian countries 5.2 China’s exports to USA, South and South-East Asian countries 6 Conclusion Appendix Notes References 4 Impact of US–China trade war on the global economy, free trade, and WTO 1 Introduction 2 Literature review 3 Impact of US–China trade war on international trade 4 Impact of US–China trade war on free trade and WTO 5 Conclusion Note References Part II What is there for the regional economy? 5 US–China trade war: An opportunity for India 1 Introduction 2 Review of literature 3 Data source and methodology 3 Results 3.1 Trends in India’s exports and imports 3.2 Revealed Comparative Advantage 4 Conclusions Notes References 6 Implications of US–China trade war for India 1 Introduction 2 Brief background of the trade war 3 Literature survey 4 India’s trade story 4.1 India’s exports 4.2 India’s imports 4.3 Broad Economic Classification (BEC) 4.4 India’s exports and imports 4.5 Indian trade patterns of intermediate goods 4.6 Indian trade pattern of final goods 4.7 India’s pattern of trade in capital goods 5 Implications of US–China trade war for India 6 Conclusions Appendix Notes References 7 US–China trade war: The potential impact on Bangladesh 1 Introduction 2 US–China trade war unfolds 3 Impact on Bangladesh 4 Relocating factories from China to Bangladesh 5 Exporting apparels 6 Importing agricultural products at lower cost 7 Steel and iron 8 Attracting Chinese investment to Bangladesh 9 Policy recommendation 10 Conclusion Notes References 8 US–China trade war: Trade and investment implications for Sri Lanka 1 Introduction 2 Brief background to the US–China trade war 3 Literature review 4 Sri Lanka’s trade and FDI performance 5 Implications of trade war for Sri Lanka’s exports to the US 5.1 Finger–Kreinin Index (FKI) and Relative Export Competitive Pressure Index (RECPI) 5.2 Bilateral Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) 5.3 SMART model 5.4 Trend analysis 6 Implications for investment diversion to Sri Lanka 7 Efforts to attract FDI from China 8 Conclusion Appendix Acknowledgement References Part III Decoding the benefit of preferential trading partners 9 US–China trade war and the RCEP negotiations: An analysis 1 Introduction 2 US–China economic and trade agreement and RCEP timeline 2.1 US–China economic and trade agreement 2.2 Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement 3 Current engagements in FTAs of US and RCEP-I 4 Comparing other FTAs with RCEP 5 Trade and investment relationship of US and China with RCEP-I 5.1 Imports 5.2 Exports 5.3 Foreign direct investment 6 Integration into regional and global value chains 7 Intellectual property and innovation 8 The impact of unexpected events 9 Conclusions and recommendations Notes References 10 US–China trade war: Impact on potential trade of their FTA partners 1 Introduction 2 Research methodology and data sources 3 Data analysis and interpretations 4 Conclusion Note References Part IV Is it for the establishment of technological supremacy? 11 The US–China technology conflict: The causes 1 Introduction 2 Is there a casus belli for a trade war? 3 Does China protect against imports? 4 State-owned enterprises 5 The real problem is FDI 6 Forced transfer of technology: a casus belli? 7 Has forced technology transfer affected profits? 8 Conclusion Notes Acknowledgements References 12 Technology rents and the new Great Game 1 Introduction 2 How the data-driven economy sets the stage for conflict 3 The US–China dynamics 3.1 A bit of history 3.2 What changed? 3.3 The groundwork is laid for confrontation on the battleground of technology 3.4 The technological trigger 4 The Great Game 5 Potential policy responses References Conclusion 1 The impact on the global economy 2 Impact of South Asian region 3 Connecting the dots for the RCEP and other FTAs 4 Technology war in the guise of a trade war Index