Three Tweets to Midnight: Effects of the Global Information Ecosystem on the Risk of Nuclear Conflict

Description

In our'post-truth'era of bots, trolls, and intemperate presidential tweets, popular social platforms like Twitter and Facebook provide a growing medium for manipulation of information directed to individuals, institutions, and global leaders. Targeted influence campaigns have been waged in at least forty-eight countries so far. We've entered an age where stability during an international crisis can be deliberately manipulated at greater speed, on a larger scale, and at a lower cost than at any previous time in history. The authors in this volume examine the current reality from a variety of angles, considering how digital misinformation might affect the likelihood of international conflict and how it might influence the perceptions and actions of leaders and their publics before and during a crisis. The authors sound the alarm about how social media fuels information overload and promotes'fast thinking'over deliberation, with potentially catastrophic results for nuclear powers in times of conflict.This volume is the culmination of two multidisciplinary workshops produced in partnership between the Stanley Center for Peace and Security, the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and the Center for International Security and Cooperation. The participants in those workshops provided invaluable insights that advance our collective understanding of its profound implications for the future of journalism, nuclear weapons policy, and international peace and security. Cover Title Copyright Contents List of Figures and Tables Acknowledgments 1. Retweets to Midnight: Assessing the Effects of the Information Ecosystem on Crisis Decision Making between Nuclear Weapons States 2. Psychological Underpinnings of Post-truth in Political Beliefs 3. The Caveman and the Bomb in the Digital Age 4. Gaming Communication on the Global Stage: Social Media Disinformation in Crisis Situations 5. Information Operations and Online Activism within NATO Discourse Appendix A: Temporal Patterns (Tweets per Hour) by Cluster Appendix B: Top Most Retweeted Accounts by Cluster Appendix C: Top Most Tweeted Domains by Cluster Appendix D: Most Frequent Terms in Account Profi les (User Descriptions) Appendix E: Most Frequent Terms in (Unique) Tweets by Cluster Appendix F: Percentage of Retweets from Retweeter Cluster (rows) to Retweeted Cluster (columns) 6. Of Wars and Rumors of Wars: Extra-factual Information and (In)Advertent Escalation 7. Crisis Stability and the Impact of the Information Ecosystem 8. Bum Dope, Blowback, and the Bomb: The Effect of Bad Information on Policy-Maker Beliefs and Crisis Stability 9. The Impact of the Information Ecosystem on Public Opinion during Nuclear Crises: Lifting the Lid on the Role of Identity Narratives 10. What Can be Done to Minimize the Effects of the Global Information Ecosystem on the Risk of Nuclear War? About the Editors and Contributors Index