ENGLISH

Coping with Uncertainty: Robust Solutions

By Kurt Marti , Yuri Ermoliev , Y. Ermoliev , M. Makowski , K. Marti (auth.) , Marek Makowski (eds.)

Book information

Publisher
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
Year
2010
ISBN
3642037348, 9783642037344
DOI
10.1007/978-3-642-03735-1
LCC
HB615 .C654 2010
Open Library ID
OL25040990M
Language
english
Format
PDF
Filesize
3 MB (2805814 bytes)
Series
Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems 633
Edition
1
Pages
277\281
Topic
Economy
Scanned
no
Time added
2011-06-04 13:46:07
Operations Research/Decision Theory; Optimization;

Description

Support for addressing the on-going global changes needs solutions for new scientific problems which in turn require new concepts and tools. A key issue concerns a vast variety of irreducible uncertainties, including extreme events of high multidimensional consequences, e.g., the climate change. The dilemma is concerned with enormous costs versus massive uncertainties of extreme impacts. Traditional scientific approaches rely on real observations and experiments. Yet no sufficient observations exist for new problems, and "pure" experiments, and learning by doing may be expensive, dangerous, or impossible. In addition, the available historical observations are often contaminated by past actions, and policies. Thus, tools are presented for the explicit treatment of uncertainties using "synthetic" information composed of available "hard" data from historical observations, the results of possible experiments, and scientific facts, as well as "soft" data from experts' opinions, and scenarios.

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