Statistics, Data Analysis, and Decision Modeling

Description

A pragmatic approach to statistics, data analysis and decision modeling.   Statistics, Data Analysis & Decision Modeling focuses on the practical understanding of its topics, allowing readers to develop conceptual insight on fundamental techniques and theories. Evans’ dedication to present material in a simple and straightforward fashion is ideal for comprehension. Cover Contents Preface Part I: STATISTICS AND DATA ANALYSIS Chapter 1 DATA AND BUSINESS DECISIONS Introduction Data in the Business Environment Sources and Types of Data Metrics and Data Classification Statistical Thinking Populations and Samples Using Microsoft Excel Basic Excel Skills Skill-Builder Exercise 1.1 Copying Formulas and Cell References Skill-Builder Exercise 1.2 Functions Skill‐Builder Exercise 1.3 Other Useful Excel Tips Excel Add-Ins Skill-Builder Exercise 1.4 Displaying Data with Excel Charts Column and Bar Charts Skill-Builder Exercise 1.5 Line Charts Skill-Builder Exercise 1.6 Pie Charts Skill-Builder Exercise 1.7 Area Charts Scatter Diagrams Skill‐Builder Exercise 1.8 Miscellaneous Excel Charts Ethics and Data Presentation Skill-Builder Exercise 1.9 Basic Concepts Review Questions Problems and Applications Case: A Data Collection and Analysis Project Chapter 2 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS AND DATA ANALYSIS Introduction Descriptive Statistics Frequency Distributions, Histograms, and Data Profiles Categorical Data Numerical Data Skill-Builder Exercise 2.1 Skill-Builder Exercise 2.2 Data Profiles Descriptive Statistics for Numerical Data Measures of Location Measures of Dispersion Skill-Builder Exercise 2.3 Measures of Shape Excel Descriptive Statistics Tool Skill-Builder Exercise 2.4 Measures of Association Skill-Builder Exercise 2.5 Descriptive Statistics for Categorical Data Skill-Builder Exercise 2.6 Visual Display of Statistical Measures Box Plots Dot‐Scale Diagrams Skill‐Builder Exercise 2.7 Outliers Data Analysis Using PivotTables Skill-Builder Exercise 2.8 Skill-Builder Exercise 2.9 Basic Concepts Review Questions Problems and Applications Case: The Malcolm Baldrige Award Skill-Builder Exercise 2.10 Skill-Builder Exercise 2.11 Chapter 3 PROBABILITY CONCEPTS AND DISTRIBUTIONS Introduction Basic Concepts of Probability Basic Probability Rules and Formulas Conditional Probability Skill-Builder Exercise 3.1 Random Variables and Probability Distributions Discrete Probability Distributions Expected Value and Variance of a Discrete Random Variable Skill-Builder Exercise 3.2 Bernoulli Distribution Binomial Distribution Poisson Distribution Skill-Builder Exercise 3.3 Continuous Probability Distributions Uniform Distribution Normal Distribution Skill-Builder Exercise 3.4 Triangular Distribution Exponential Distribution Probability Distributions in PHStat Other Useful Distributions Joint and Marginal Probability Distributions Basic Concepts Review Questions Problems and Applications Case: Probability Analysis for Quality Measurements Chapter 4 SAMPLING AND ESTIMATION Introduction Statistical Sampling Sample Design Sampling Methods Errors in Sampling Random Sampling From Probability Distributions Sampling From Discrete Probability Distributions Skill‐Builder Exercise 4.1 Sampling From Common Probability Distributions A Statistical Sampling Experiment in Finance Skill-Builder Exercise 4.2 Sampling Distributions and Sampling Error Skill-Builder Exercise 4.3 Applying the Sampling Distribution of the Mean Sampling and Estimation Point Estimates Unbiased Estimators Skill-Builder Exercise 4.4 Interval Estimates Confidence Intervals: Concepts and Applications Confidence Interval for the Mean with Known Population Standard Deviation Skill-Builder Exercise 4.5 Confidence Interval for the Mean with Unknown Population Standard Deviation Confidence Interval for a Proportion Confidence Intervals for the Variance and Standard Deviation Confidence Interval for a Population Total Using Confidence Intervals for Decision Making Confidence Intervals and Sample Size Prediction Intervals Additional Types of Confidence Intervals Differences Between Means, Independent Samples Differences Between Means, Paired Samples Differences Between Proportions Basic Concepts Review Questions Problems and Applications Case: Analyzing a Customer Survey Skill-Builder Exercise 4.6 Skill-Builder Exercise 4.7 Skill-Builder Exercise 4.8 Skill-Builder Exercise 4.9 Chapter 5 HYPOTHESIS TESTING AND STATISTICAL INFERENCE Introduction Basic Concepts of Hypothesis Testing Hypothesis Formulation Significance Level Decision Rules Spreadsheet Support for Hypothesis Testing One-Sample Hypothesis Tests One-Sample Tests for Means Using p-Values One-Sample Tests for Proportions One Sample Test for the Variance Type II Errors and the Power of A Test Skill-Builder Exercise 5.1 Two-Sample Hypothesis Tests Two-Sample Tests for Means Two-Sample Test for Means with Paired Samples Two-Sample Tests for Proportions Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals Test for Equality of Variances Skill-Builder Exercise 5.2 Anova: Testing Differences of Several Means Assumptions of ANOVA Tukey–Kramer Multiple Comparison Procedure Chi-Square Test for Independence Skill-Builder Exercise 5.3 Basic Concepts Review Questions Problems and Applications Case: HATCO, Inc. Skill-Builder Exercise 5.4 Chapter 6 REGRESSION ANALYSIS Introduction Simple Linear Regression Skill-Builder Exercise 6.1 Least-Squares Regression Skill-Builder Exercise 6.2 A Practical Application of Simple Regression to Investment Risk Simple Linear Regression in Excel Skill-Builder Exercise 6.3 Regression Statistics Regression as Analysis of Variance Testing Hypotheses for Regression Coefficients Confidence Intervals for Regression Coefficients Confidence and Prediction Intervals for X-Values Residual Analysis and Regression Assumptions Standard Residuals Skill‐Builder Exercise 6.4 Checking Assumptions Multiple Linear Regression Skill‐Builder Exercise 6.5 Interpreting Results from Multiple Linear Regression Correlation and Multicollinearity Building Good Regression Models Stepwise Regression Skill-Builder Exercise 6.6 Best-Subsets Regression The Art of Model Building in Regression Regression with Categorical Independent Variables Categorical Variables with More Than Two Levels Skill-Builder Exercise 6.7 Regression Models with Nonlinear Terms Skill-Builder Exercise 6.8 Basic Concepts Review Questions Problems and Applications Case: Hatco Chapter 7 FORECASTING Introduction Qualitative and Judgmental Methods Historical Analogy The Delphi Method Indicators and Indexes for Forecasting Statistical Forecasting Models Forecasting Models for Stationary Time Series Moving Average Models Error Metrics and Forecast Accuracy Skill-Builder Exercise 7.1 Exponential Smoothing Models Skill-Builder Exercise 7.2 Forecasting Models for Time Series with a Linear Trend Regression-Based Forecasting Advanced Forecasting Models Autoregressive Forecasting Models Skill-Builder Exercise 7.3 Forecasting Models with Seasonality Incorporating Seasonality in Regression Models Skill-Builder Exercise 7.4 Forecasting Models with Trend and Seasonality Regression Forecasting with Causal Variables Choosing and Optimizing Forecasting Models Using CB Predictor Skill-Builder Exercise 7.5 The Practice of Forecasting Basic Concepts Review Questions Problems and Applications Case: Energy Forecasting Chapter 8 INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICAL QUALITY CONTROL Introduction The Role of Statistics and Data Analysis in Quality Control Statistical Process Control Control Charts x- and R-Charts Skill-Builder Exercise 8.1 Analyzing Control Charts Sudden Shift in the Process Average Cycles Trends Hugging the Center Line Hugging the Control Limits Skill-Builder Exercise 8.2 Skill-Builder Exercise 8.3 Control Charts for Attributes Variable Sample Size Skill-Builder Exercise 8.4 Process Capability Analysis Skill-Builder Exercise 8.5 Basic Concepts Review Questions Problems and Applications Case: Quality Control Analysis Part II: Decision Modeling and Analysis Chapter 9 BUILDING AND USING DECISION MODELS Introduction Decision Models Model Analysis What-If Analysis Skill-Builder Exercise 9.1 Skill-Builder Exercise 9.2 Skill-Builder Exercise 9.3 Model Optimization Tools for Model Building Logic and Business Principles Skill-Builder Exercise 9.4 Common Mathematical Functions Data Fitting Skill-Builder Exercise 9.5 Spreadsheet Engineering Skill-Builder Exercise 9.6 Spreadsheet Modeling Examples New Product Development Skill-Builder Exercise 9.7 Single Period Purchase Decisions Overbooking Decisions Project Management Model Assumptions, Complexity, and Realism Skill-Builder Exercise 9.8 Basic Concepts Review Questions Problems and Applications Case: An Inventory Management Decision Model Chapter 10 DECISION MODELS WITH UNCERTAINTY AND RISK Introduction Spreadsheet Models with Random Variables Monte Carlo Simulation Skill-Builder Exercise 10.1 Monte Carlo Simulation Using Crystal Ball Defining Uncertain Model Inputs Running a Simulation Saving Crystal Ball Runs Analyzing Results Skill-Builder Exercise 10.2 Crystal Ball Charts Crystal Ball Reports and Data Extraction Crystal Ball Functions and Tools Applications of Monte Carlo Simulation and Crystal Ball Features Newsvendor Model: Fitting Input Distributions, Decision Table Tool, and Custom Distribution Skill-Builder Exercise 10.3 Skill-Builder Exercise 10.4 Overbooking Model: Crystal Ball Functions Skill-Builder Exercise 10.5 Cash Budgeting: Correlated Assumptions New Product Introduction: Tornado Chart Tool Skill-Builder Exercise 10.6 Project Management: Alternate Input Parameters and the Bootstrap Tool Skill-Builder Exercise 10.7 Basic Concepts Review Questions Problems and Applications Case: J&G Bank Chapter 11 DECISIONS, UNCERTAINTY, AND RISK Introduction Decision Making Under Certainty Decisions Involving a Single Alternative Skill-Builder Exercise 11.1 Decisions Involving Non–mutually Exclusive Alternatives Decisions Involving Mutually Exclusive Alternatives Decisions Involving Uncertainty and Risk Making Decisions with Uncertain Information Decision Strategies for a Minimize Objective Skill-Builder Exercise 11.2 Decision Strategies for a Maximize Objective Risk and Variability Expected Value Decision Making Analysis of Portfolio Risk Skill-Builder Exercise 11.3 The “Flaw of Averages” Skill-Builder Exercise 11.4 Decision Trees A Pharmaceutical R&D Model Decision Trees and Risk Sensitivity Analysis in Decision Trees Skill-Builder Exercise 11.5 The Value of Information Decisions with Sample Information Conditional Probabilities and Bayes’s Rule Utility and Decision Making Skill-Builder Exercise 11.6 Exponential Utility Functions Skill-Builder Exercise 11.7 Basic Concepts Review Questions Problems and Applications Case: The Sandwich Decision Chapter 12 QUEUES AND PROCESS SIMULATION MODELING Introduction Queues and Queuing Systems Basic Concepts of Queuing Systems Customer Characteristics Service Characteristics Queue Characteristics System Configuration Performance Measures Analytical Queuing Models Single-Server Model Skill-Builder Exercise 12.1 Little’s Law Process Simulation Concepts Skill-Builder Exercise 12.2 Process Simulation with SimQuick Getting Started with SimQuick A Queuing Simulation Model Skill-Builder Exercise 12.3 Queues in Series with Blocking Grocery Store Checkout Model with Resources Manufacturing Inspection Model with Decision Points Pull System Supply Chain with Exit Schedules Other SimQuick Features and Commercial Simulation Software Continuous Simulation Modeling Basic Concepts Review Questions Problems and Applications Case: Production/Inventory Planning Chapter 13 LINEAR OPTIMIZATION Introduction Building Linear Optimization Models Characteristics of Linear Optimization Models Implementing Linear Optimization Models on Spreadsheets Excel Functions to Avoid in Modeling Linear Programs Solving Linear Optimization Models Solving the SSC Model Using Standard Solver Solving the SSC Model Using Premium Solver Solver Outcomes and Solution Messages Interpreting Solver Reports Skill-Builder Exercise 13.1 How Solver Creates Names in Reports Difficulties with Solver Applications of Linear Optimization Process Selection Skill-Builder Exercise 13.2 Blending Skill-Builder Exercise 13.3 Portfolio Investment Skill-Builder Exercise 13.4 Transportation Problem Interpreting Reduced Costs Multiperiod Production Planning Skill-Builder Exercise 13.5 Multiperiod Financial Planning Skill-Builder Exercise 13.6 A Model with Bounded Variables A Production/Marketing Allocation Model How Solver Works Basic Concepts Review Questions Problems and Applications Case: Haller’s Pub & Brewery Chapter 14 INTEGER, NONLINEAR, AND ADVANCED OPTIMIZATION METHODS Introduction Integer Optimization Models A Cutting Stock Problem Solving Integer Optimization Models Skill-Builder Exercise 14.1 Integer Optimization Models with Binary Variables Project Selection Site Location Model Skill-Builder Exercise 14.2 Computer Configuration Skill-Builder Exercise 14.3 A Supply Chain Facility Location Model Mixed Integer Optimization Models Plant Location Model A Model with Fixed Costs Nonlinear Optimization Hotel Pricing Solving Nonlinear Optimization Models Markowitz Portfolio Model Skill-Builder Exercise 14.4 Evolutionary Solver for Nonsmooth Optimization Rectilinear Location Model Skill-Builder Exercise 14.5 Job Sequencing Skill-Builder Exercise 14.6 Risk Analysis and Optimization Combining Optimization and Simulation A Portfolio Allocation Model Using OptQuest Skill-Builder Exercise 14.7 Basic Concepts Review Questions Problems and Applications Case: Tindall Bookstores Appendix Index A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Z