Environmental Protection and Disaster Risks: Proceeding of the 2nd International Conference on Environmental Protection and Disaster Risks and 10th Annual CMDR COE Conference on Crisis Management and Disaster Response

Description

This book presents topics that are challenging fields that scientific world is trying to address as much as it can. Earthquakes, floods, fires, droughts, blizzards, dust storms, natural releases of toxic gases and liquids, diseases, and other environmental variations affect hundreds of millions of people each year. Many disaster events are triggered by human activities. Dealing with these problems will require systems thinking and integrating multidisciplinary science. Actions in these directions are taken more and more in the recent years by political bodies, NGOs, and scientific groups trying to find sustainable solutions for the future generations. Every point of view matters when it comes to our global home―The Planet Earth. The book presents research findings and conclusions that have been developed as algorithms or  new methods solving problems in the fields of disaster management, natural hazards, risk reduction and building resilience, climate change challenges and security implications, air pollution and health, water resources and management and informatics, remote sensing, GIS, and high-performance computing. The 2nd International Conference on Environmental Protection and Disaster Risks in combination with the 10th Annual CMDR COE Conference on Crisis Management and Disaster Response brought together in the period June 06-09, 2022, in Sofia, Bulgaria scientists who presented their findings in the fast developing environmental management and disaster risk reduction field. Preface Organization Contents Disaster Management, Natural Hazards, Risk reduction and Building Resilience Assessment of the Effects of Strong Earthquakes on the City of Ruse 1 Introduction 2 Creating a Database for the Building Stock 3 Methodology for Seismic Risk Assessment 4 Identification and Classification of the Building Stock 5 Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of the Building Stock 6 Deterministic Earthquake Scenario for the City of Ruse in Terms of Intensity 7 Assessment of Direct Damages and Destruction 8 Assessment of Social Losses - Injured People and Victims 9 Estimation of the Economic Losses Due to Direct Physical Damage and Destruction 10 Conclusion References Earthquake Risk Scenarios for the City of Veliko Tarnovo 1 Introduction 2 Tectonic Settings 3 Soil Properties 4 Ground Motion Attenuation (GMPE’s) 5 Deterministic Scenarios for the City of Veliko Tarnovo 6 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment 6.1 Seismic Source Model 6.2 Seismic Source Parameters 6.3 Treatment of Uncertainties 7 Probabilistic Earthquake Scenarios for the City of Veliko Tarnovo 8 Risk Scenarios and Population Exposure 8.1 Population and Buildings of the City of Veliko Tarnovo 8.2 Methodology for Calculation of the Population Exposure Index (PEI) 9 Results and Discussion References Recent Trends in Hail Precipitation for Administrative Districts of Bulgaria 1 Introduction 2 Data and Methods 3 Climate Analysis of Distribution of Hail Days During the Period 1991–2020 4 Comparative Analysis of Annual Distribution of Hail Days During the Period 1961–2020 5 Conclusions References Torrential Catchments from Belasitsa Mountain (SW Bulgaria) - Geological and Geomorphological Characteristics and Related Hazards 1 Introduction 2 Study Area 2.1 Geology and Geomorphology Settings 2.2 Climate, Vegetation, and Anthropogenic Influence 3 Data and Methods 3.1 Data 3.2 Methodology 4 Results 4.1 December 2021 Interacting Hazardous Processes 4.2 Morphometric Analysis – Linear, Aerial and Relief Parameters of the Catchments 5 Conclusions References Identification of Coastal Flooding Hotspots in a Large Bay Using an Index-Based Risk Assessment Approach 1 Introduction 2 Study Site 3 Data and Methods 3.1 Flooding Hazard 3.2 Exposure Vulnerability 3.3 Coastal Index 4 Results and Discussion 4.1 Flooding Hazard Evaluation 4.2 Exposure Evaluation 4.3 Coastal Index Evaluation 5 Conclusions References Evaluation of the Nakamura Vulnerability Index of a Cast-in-Situ Reinforced-Concrete Building from Ambient Noise Records 1 Introduction 2 Methodology and Measurements 3 Results 4 Conclusions References Historical Earthquakes and Tsunami Waves in the Sea of Marmara: Review and Modelling 1 Introduction 2 Historical Earthquakes and Tsunami Waves 3 Tsunami Simulation Procedure 4 Results of Tsunami Simulations 4.1 Șarköy-Mürefte Tsunami Simulation 4.2 1999 Kocaeli Tsunami Simulation 5 Conclusions References Climate Change and Security Implications Wind Speed and Temperature Variations in Burgas Region Since 1836 1 Introduction 2 Data and Methods 3 Results 3.1 Time Series Spectra 3.2 TSI Influence on Wind Velocity and Air Temperature 4 Conclusions References Climate Change Implications on the Condition of the Road Surface in Bulgaria 1 Introduction 2 Materials and Methods 3 Research and Results 4 Conclusion References Climate Change Challenges and Security Implications on National Security in North Macedonia 1 Introduction 2 Security Policy and Climate Change 3 Climate Change Challenges and Security Implications on National Security in North Macedonia 4 Conclusion References The Frequency of Freeze-Thaw Cycles Across Balkan Peninsula in the Period 1991 – 2020 1 Introduction 2 Data and Methods 3 Results and Discussion 3.1 Annual Frequencies 3.2 Seasonal Distribution 3.3 Monthly Distribution 3.4 Trend Analyzes 4 Conclusions References Assessment of Contemporary Climate Change in Bulgaria Using the Köppen-Geiger Climate Classification 1 Introduction 2 Data and Methods 3 Results and Discussion 4 Conclusions References An Artificial Intelligence and Simulation Approach to Climate-Conflict-Migration Driven Security Issues 1 Background 1.1 Climate Change, Conflict and Migration Driven Challenges 1.2 Climate Change Impact in Nigeria Camp Sites 2 Aim, Objectives and Methodology 2.1 A Novel Approach to Response and Humanitarian Security 2.2 MIP Medical and Security Threats Analysis 2.3 MASA SYNERGY Simulation in Humanitarian Crisis 2.4 SYNERGY Simulation Decisional Process Workflow 3 Results and Discussion 4 Conclusions References Estimation of the Historical and Future Renewable Energy Potential with RegCM4 over the Region of Southeastern Europe 1 Introduction 2 Methods 3 Results 4 Conclusion References Variations of Daily Danube Discharge at 16 Gauging Stations 1 Introduction 2 Data and Methods 3 Time Series Spectra 4 Seasonal Variations and Floods 5 Solar Signals in Maximal Discharge 6 Conclusions References Investigation of the Dependence of Ultraviolet Radiation on the day 1 Introduction 2 Data and Instruments 3 Results 4 Conclusion References Air Pollution and Health Time Series Analysis of Asthma Hospital Admissions and Air Quality in Sofia – A Pilot Study 1 Introduction 2 Methods 2.1 Hospital Admission Data 2.2 Air Pollution and Meteorological Data 2.3 Statistical Analysis 3 Results 3.1 Description of the Data 3.2 Time Series Analysis 4 Discussion 4.1 Overall Findings 4.2 Strengths and Limitations 5 Conclusions References Impact of Regulatory Measures on Pollutants Concentration in Urban Street Canyon – A Pilot Study 1 Introduction 2 Methods and Input Data 2.1 Methods 2.2 Meteorological Input 2.3 Emissions Input 3 Models Set-Up and Flows 3.1 Weather Research and Forecasting Model Set-Up 3.2 ADMS-Urban System Set-Up 4 Results and Discussion 5 Conclusions References Multivariate Statistical Modelling of Urban Air-Quality 1 Introduction 2 Materials and Methods 2.1 Data Harvesting 2.2 Principal Component Analysis 3 Results and Discussion 4 Conclusions References Transport Emissions from Sofia’s  Streets - Inventory, Scenarios, and Exposure Setting 1 Introduction 2 Research Framework, Materials and Methods 2.1 Materials and Methods for Rapid Traffic Modeling and Emission Inventory 2.2 Materials and Methods for Fleet Inventory and Scenario Development 2.3 Materials and Methods for Urban Morphology Modeling 2.4 Materials and Methods for Activities Modeling 3 Results 3.1 Rapid Traffic Modeling, Fleet and Emission Inventory, Scenarios and Urban Street Canyons 3.2 Activities Modeling and Exposure Setting 4 Discussion 5 Conclusions References Temporal Variations of Black Carbon in the Urban Air Particulate Matter of Sofia–Observed and Modelled 1 Introduction 2 Methodology 2.1 Sampling Site and Equipment 2.2 Black Carbon Analysis 2.3 Description of Modelling Systems 3 Results and Discussions 3.1 Temporal Variation of PM2.5 and BC in Sofia 3.2 Modelled Results 3.3 Specific Episodes 4 Conclusions References Evaluation of the Effects of the National Emission Reduction Strategies for Years 2020–2029 and After 2030 on the Sulphur and Nitrogen Wet and Dry Depositions on the Territory of Bulgaria 1 Introduction 2 Materials and Method 3 Emission Scenarios and Numerical Experiments 3.1 Results for Nitrogen Depositions for Different Scenarios 3.2 Results for Sulphur Depositions for Different Scenarios 3.3 NMB Nitrogen Deposition for Different Scenarios 3.4 NMB Sulphur Deposition for Different Scenarios 4 Conclusion References PAHs and Black Carbon in Urban Air Particulate Matter in Bulgaria 1 Introduction 2 Methodology 2.1 Sampling Sites and Equipment Description 2.2 Analytical Techniques 2.3 Source Identification of BC Mass Concentration and PAHs 2.4 Estimation of Cancer Risk of PAHs 3 Results and Discussions 3.1 PM2.5 Mass Concentrations in Sofia and Burgas 3.2 PAHs, BC and BrC Concentration 3.3 Diagnostic Ratio for Source Identification of PAHs in PM2.5 3.4 Estimation of Cancer Risk 4 Conclusions References Forecasting Hourly NO2 and O3 Concentrations Using Data Analytics Models at Pavlovo Station in Sofia*-12pt 1 Introduction to Data Analytics Air Pollution Models 2 Data Description and Exploratory Data Analysis 3 Mixtures-of-Experts Time Series Regression Models 4 Model Predictors 5 Data Splitting for Time Series Validation 6 Accuracy Measures 7 Graphical Models Assessment 8 Conclusions References Solar and Climate Impacts on Groundwater Level Variations in Two Wells in England 1 Introduction 2 Study Sites 3 Data and Methods 4 Results and Discussion 4.1 Comparison of the Time Series Spectra 4.2 Precipitation Influence on Groundwater Level Variations 4.3 Common Cycles of Solar and Groundwater Level Variations 5 Conclusions References Water Resources and Management Plastic Ingestion by Phocoena Phocoena and Tursiops Truncatus from the Black Sea 1 Introduction 2 Materials and Methods 3 Results 4 Discussion 5 Conclusions References The Role of Precipitation Variability in Water Content at Four Reservoirs in Central Western Bulgaria for the Period 2016–2019 1 Introduction 2 Data Sets 3 Results 4 Conclusion References Informatics, Remote Sensing, GIS, High Performance Computing Application of Drones in Crises Management Supported Mobile Applications and C4IRS Systems 1 Introduction 2 Choosing UAV with the Fuzzy AHP (Analytical Hierarchical Process) and the VIKOR (Multi-criteria-Compromise Ranking) Method 3 C4IRS 4 Conclusion References Verification of 2020 Geomagnetic Models Over the Bulgarian Territory 1 Introduction 1.1 Geomagnetic Models 1.2 Repeat Station Networks 1.3 Geomagnetic Observatories 2 Bulgarian Infrastructure for Geomagnetic Observations 3 Bulgarian Geomagnetic Models 4 Data Used for Model Verification 5 Results and Discussion References Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Height at Marine and Land Air Masses Based on Sodar Data 1 Introduction 2 Measuring Site and Equipment 3 Data and Analysis Overview 3.1 Data Availability 3.2 Analysis 4 Results 4.1 Nocturnal Stable Boundary Layer (SBL) of Air Masses from the Land 4.2 Nocturnal CBL of Marine Air Masses 4.3 Daytime CBL of Land Air Masses 5 Conclusions References Bulgarian Platform for Natural Hazards Data Collection and Decision Support in Field Operations 1 Introduction 1.1 Digital Systems About Hazards in Bulgaria 2 Forest Fires in Bulgaria 3 Flood Events in Bulgaria 3.1 Small Floods 3.2 Dangerous Floods 3.3 Very Dangerous Floods 3.4 Devastating Floods 3.5 Calamitous Floods 4 RiskMap Platform and Test Areas 5 Conclusion References Author Index