Probability and induction

Description

Title page Preface PART I: INTRODUCTORY: KNOWLEDGE AND BELIEF 1. The Scope of the Inquiry 2. Subjectivist Theories of ProbabiIity: Meanings of 'Belief' 3. The Relation of Probability to Evidence 4. The Nature of Opinion 5. Opinion as a Basis for Action 6. Probability and Induction: The Plan of this Book PART II: THE TRADITIONAL PROBLEM OF INDUCTION 7. Aristotle's Definition of Induction 8. Summative Induction by Complete Enumeration 9. Intuitive Induction: Facts and Principles 10. Recursive or Mathematical Induction II. Ampliative Induction and the Search for Causes 12. Bacon's Method of Induction by Elimination 13. Hume's Doctrine of Antecedent Causes 14. The Inductive Methods of J. S. Mill and their Presuppositions 15. Limits to the Use of the Notion of Cause in Natural Science 16. The Formulation of Natural Laws in Scientific Practice 17. Theories about the Logical Character of Natural Laws 18. Natural Necessity and Perception 7 19. The Explanation of Natural Laws 20. Criticism and Defence of Transcendent Hypotheses 21. The Relation between Induction and the Hypothetical Method 22. The Consilience of Primary Inductions 23. Confirmation and Elimination PART III: THE THEORY OF CHANCES 24. The Notion of Chance 25. Probability Rules in Matters of Chance 26. Fundamentals of the Calculus of Chances 27. The Notion of Relevance and the Inversion Theorem 28. Theorems on the Composition of Sets 29. Bernoulli's Limit Theorem 30. Poincaré's Equalization Theorems 31. Equiprobability and Indifference 32. The Frequency Theory of Probability 33. The Defects of the Frequency Theory 34. The Analysis of Equiprobability 35. The Notion of Range 36. The Variety of the Probability Rules Covered by the Range Definition 37. The Determination of Probabilities a Priori and a Posteriori 38. Attempts to Justify Induction by Use of the Inversion Theorem 39. The Argument from Restriction of Alternatives 40. A Fundamental Objection to all Attempts to Justify Induction within the Theory of Chances 41. Sampling and the Use of Statistics PART IV: THE PROBABILITY OF INDUCTIVE SCIENCE 43. The Policy of Primary Induction 44. The Justification of Primary Induction 45. Degrees of Acceptability in Primary Induction 46. The Policy of Secondary Induction 47. The Acceptability of Theories 48. Conclusion INDEX