Market Magic: Riding the greatest Bull Market of the Century

Description

Market Magic: Dustwrapper - Front......Page 1 Flyleaf - Front......Page 2 Flyleaf - Rear......Page 3 Additional Praise for Market Magic......Page 4 Short Title......Page 6 Other Books in the Wiley Investment Series......Page 7 Title Page......Page 8 Printer's Imprint; Author's Disclaimer......Page 9 Dedication......Page 10 Preface......Page 12 Acknowledgments......Page 16 Contents......Page 18 PART ONE: The Evolution Of Discovery......Page 24 1. U.S. Bull Market Extension? There Is Historic Precedent......Page 26 Background of Low Interest Rates......Page 27 Advance-Decline Line......Page 30 Record Bull Market Advances without 10 Percent Reversals......Page 32 Record Bull Market Advances Add Fuel......Page 34 Capital/Consumer Ratio......Page 35 Discount Rate Study: "Three Steps and Stumble"......Page 38 Consumer Price Index and Inflation......Page 43 Summary......Page 45 Global versus Domestic: Globally-Exposed U.S. Equities......Page 46 Domestically-Exposed U.S. Equities: Small Cap......Page 49 Structurally Underperforming Sectors......Page 57 Why the Globally-Exposed Stocks Are Outperforming......Page 60 Dow Outperformance......Page 68 Focus on the Dollar......Page 72 Summary......Page 75 3. Recent History/Market Projections......Page 77 How Far, How Long?......Page 78 The 1949-1950 Analogy Holds......Page 82 Structural Bull Market Confirmations Usher in 1996......Page 84 The Dow and the Nikkei ... An Amazing Fit......Page 88 Secular U.S. Bull Markets of the Twentieth Century......Page 89 Summary......Page 91 PART TWO: New Horizons For The Twenty-First Century......Page 92 4. Changing Demographics......Page 94 Declining U.S. Demographics......Page 95 Impact on Domestically-Oriented Sectors......Page 96 Aging U.S. Population......Page 100 Impact on Globally-Exposed Sectors......Page 103 Demographics and the Two-Tier Market Analysis......Page 107 Summary......Page 108 A Demographically-Driven Savings/Investment Wave......Page 109 Future Impact of the Savings/Investment Wave......Page 113 Financial Assets as Commodities......Page 115 Continuing Rise Fueled by Mounting Savings......Page 116 Duration of the Financial Sector Uptrend......Page 118 Summary......Page 122 Background of Kondratieff......Page 123 How Does the Long Wave Arise?/Implications......Page 125 Long Wave Compared to the DJIA......Page 126 Are Demographics Driving the Long Wave?......Page 128 Summary......Page 130 7. The New Technological Era: Observations and Conceptual Thoughts......Page 131 New Information Technology Is "High-Tech"......Page 132 "New-Tech" Employs; "Old-Tech" Unemploys......Page 133 Information Technology Boosts Efficiency, Productivity, and Profitability......Page 135 Developing Nations Moving Directly to "New-Tech"......Page 138 New Technology Pervades the Retail Marketplace......Page 140 Emergence of Smart Products......Page 141 Summary......Page 146 8. Old-Tech and New-Tech: Need for New Sectors......Page 147 Old-Tech Sectors Underperforming the Stock Market......Page 148 New-Tech Replacing Old-Tech......Page 152 The Need for New Sectors......Page 155 Telecommunications Sector: The Challenge of Rapid Change......Page 158 Summary......Page 159 9. Revisiting the Capital/Consumer Ratio......Page 160 Capital Goods Breakdown; Consumer Goods Breakout......Page 161 A Possible Trend Reversal in Leadership......Page 163 Revision of S&P Sectors......Page 166 Summary......Page 167 10. Looking for Inflation in All the Wrong Places......Page 168 A Fresh Look at the CRB......Page 169 Today's New Raw Materials......Page 170 The Agricultural Boom Is Global......Page 173 Water: The New Commodity......Page 178 Oil Component......Page 185 Role of Chemicals......Page 188 Summary......Page 190 Global Food Demand Boosts U.S. Agriculture......Page 191 Biotechnology and Related Technologies Raise Farm Demand......Page 193 De-Urbanization Is Resettling Rural Land......Page 194 Summary......Page 195 PART THREE: Unscrambling The Puzzles......Page 196 Reassessing Intermarket Relationships......Page 198 Question-Asking Process......Page 199 Summary......Page 203 13. New Economic Perceptions......Page 204 Measuring Productivity in the Knowledge Economy......Page 205 Technology Diffusion: Efficiencies Rise and Costs Drop......Page 206 Productivity and Intangible Goods: Measuring the Immeasurable......Page 207 Productivity Efficiencies Too Swift to Calculate......Page 210 An Economy of Physics......Page 211 Wage Gains Consistent with Increased Productivity......Page 216 Unemployment: Low, Stable, and Non-Inflationary......Page 220 Inflation as Measured by the CPI, PPI, and Gold......Page 223 Absence of Inflation......Page 225 Summary......Page 228 14. Stock Market Implications and Expectations......Page 229 Is the CRB/Bond Intermarket Relationship De-Linking?......Page 230 Macroshift in Commodity Leadership......Page 232 Stock Market Speculation: The Value of Growth......Page 233 Margin Debt: No Longer a Purely Equity Indicator......Page 234 Savings and Debt Trends......Page 236 Stock Market Valuations......Page 240 Mutual Funds/Stock Supply/Volatility......Page 242 Thinning Markets: Perception versus Reality......Page 244 Summary......Page 247 PART FOUR: Conclusion......Page 248 Interest Rates......Page 250 Inflation, Deflation ... Shifting Seats?......Page 252 Deflationary Growth--A Concept Never Envisioned......Page 253 Inflation: Not Dead--Another Shift......Page 254 Stocks......Page 255 Investment Focus......Page 258 Other Forces at Work: Competition......Page 259 Other Forces at Work: Sovereignty......Page 260 Summary......Page 261 Notes......Page 264 Index......Page 270 Dustwrapper - Rear......Page 277