Long-term Modeled Projections of the Energy Sector : An Incremental Approach to Narrowing Down the Uncertainty Range

Description

This book covers available approaches to improving the performance and impact of long-term projections of the national energy sector development. In turn, it introduces an original multi-stage approach to narrowing down the uncertainty range of the input data and resulting projections. Its unique contribution is that it limits the scope for each of the projection timeframe segments step-by-step. This is done in the course of iterative calculations, which employ dedicated methods and other tools to elucidate and solve top-priority problems specific to each time segment. In closing, the book provides a detailed treatment of two essential research problems: 1) long-term forecasting for regional energy markets, and 2) the quantitative assessment of a) the barriers that are likely to hinder energy sector development and b) strategic-level energy security threats. Front Matter ....Pages i-xvi The Effect of the Projection Time Frame on Projection Performance and Projection Performance Requirements (Yuri D. Kononov)....Pages 1-14 Further Development of the Long-Term Projections Methodology for the Energy Sector (Yuri D. Kononov)....Pages 15-35 Methods of Projecting Price and Demand for Energy Carriers (Yuri D. Kononov)....Pages 37-52 Assessing and Factoring in Conditions and Barriers that Limit the Projection Range of Prospective Development of the Energy Sector (Yuri D. Kononov)....Pages 53-71 Quantitative Assessment of Strategic Threats and Energy Security Indicators (Yuri D. Kononov)....Pages 73-94 Back Matter ....Pages 95-98