Data Analytics for Engineering and Construction Project Risk Management

Description

This book provides a step-by-step guidance on how to implement analytical methods in project risk management. The text focuses on engineering design and construction projects and as such is suitable for graduate students in engineering, construction, or project management, as well as practitioners aiming to develop, improve, and/or simplify corporate project management processes. The book places emphasis on building data-driven models for additive-incremental risks, where data can be collected on project sites, assembled from queries of corporate databases, and/or generated using procedures for eliciting experts’ judgments. While the presented models are mathematically inspired, they are nothing beyond what an engineering graduate is expected to know: some algebra, a little calculus, a little statistics, and, especially, undergraduate-level understanding of the probability theory. The book is organized in three parts and fourteen chapters. In Part I the authors provide the general introduction to risk and uncertainty analysis applied to engineering construction projects. The basic formulations and the methods for risk assessment used during project planning phase are discussed in Part II, while in Part III the authors present the methods for monitoring and (re)assessment of risks during project execution. Front Matter ....Pages i-xv Front Matter ....Pages 1-1 Introduction to Uncertainty and Risk (Ivan Damnjanovic, Kenneth Reinschmidt)....Pages 3-22 Project Risk Management Fundamentals (Ivan Damnjanovic, Kenneth Reinschmidt)....Pages 23-41 Front Matter ....Pages 43-43 Second Moment Approach for the Probability Distribution of Project Performance Functions (Ivan Damnjanovic, Kenneth Reinschmidt)....Pages 45-64 Monte Carlo Simulation Approach for the Probability Distribution of Project Performance Functions (Ivan Damnjanovic, Kenneth Reinschmidt)....Pages 65-80 Correlation in Projects (Ivan Damnjanovic, Kenneth Reinschmidt)....Pages 81-107 Estimating Means, Variances, and Correlations Based on Experts’ Judgment (Ivan Damnjanovic, Kenneth Reinschmidt)....Pages 109-142 Sensitivity and Common Cause Effects (Ivan Damnjanovic, Kenneth Reinschmidt)....Pages 143-164 Approximate Risk Function for Project Durations (Ivan Damnjanovic, Kenneth Reinschmidt)....Pages 165-180 Contingency and Management Reserves (Ivan Damnjanovic, Kenneth Reinschmidt)....Pages 181-203 Front Matter ....Pages 205-205 Bayesian Revision of Probability Estimates (Ivan Damnjanovic, Kenneth Reinschmidt)....Pages 207-233 Managing Contingency and Budget to Complete (Ivan Damnjanovic, Kenneth Reinschmidt)....Pages 235-276 Statistical Project Control (Ivan Damnjanovic, Kenneth Reinschmidt)....Pages 277-303 Forecasting Project Completion (Ivan Damnjanovic, Kenneth Reinschmidt)....Pages 305-355 Forecasting with Learning Curve Models (Ivan Damnjanovic, Kenneth Reinschmidt)....Pages 357-371 Back Matter ....Pages 373-379