Stumbling Giant: The Threats to China's Future

Description

While dozens of recent books and articles have predicted the near-certainty of China’s rise to global supremacy, this book boldly counters such widely-held assumptions. Timothy Beardson brings to light the daunting array of challenges that today confront China, as well as the inadequacy of the policy responses. Threats to China come on many fronts, Beardson shows, and by their number and sheer weight these problems will thwart any ambition to become the world’s “Number One power.” Drawing on extensive research and experience living and working in Asia over the last 35 years, the author spells out China’s situation: an inexorable demographic future of a shrinking labor force, relentless aging, extreme gender disparity, and even a falling population. Also, the nation faces social instability, a devastated environment, a predominantly low-tech economy with inadequate innovation, the absence of an effective welfare safety net, an ossified governance structure, and radical Islam lurking at the borders. Beardson’s nuanced, first-hand look at China acknowledges its historic achievements while tempering predictions of its imminent hegemony with a no-nonsense dose of reality. Contents Acknowledgements Abbreviations Introduction: Facing Multiple Challenges 1. The Making of Today’s China 2. The Broken Economic Model 3. The Elusive Knowledge Economy 4. Finance 5. Social Welfare: Missing Umbrella 6. The Environment 7. Threats to Social Stability 8. Threats to Civil Stability 9. Identity: Future of State and Party 10. America and China: Common Interests, Mutual Antagonisms 11. Great Power Relationships 12. Central Asia 13. Undeclared War in the Fourth Dimension? 14. Nervous Neighbours 15. China in the World 16. Outcomes Notes Bibliography Index