Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions

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Gerd Gigerenzer Risk Savvy How to Make Good Decisions Viking Adult (2014) ALSO BY GERD GIGERENZER......Page 2 TITLE PAGE......Page 3 COPYRIGHT......Page 4 DEDICATION......Page 5 CONTENTS......Page 6 PART I | The Psychology of Risk......Page 9 1 | Are People Stupid?......Page 10 Chances of Rain......Page 12 Pill Scare......Page 14 Terrorists Use Our Brains......Page 17 Are People Hopeless in Dealing with Risk?......Page 22 Becoming Risk Savvy......Page 24 The Illusion of Certainty......Page 25 Blind Faith in Tests......Page 26 My Security Blanket, Please......Page 27 Risk and Uncertainty......Page 29 Known Risk......Page 32 The Three Faces of Probability......Page 33 The Art of Risk Communication......Page 34 Miracles Happen......Page 35 The Secret of Intuition: Unconscious Rules of Thumb......Page 37 Don’t Confuse Risk and Uncertainty......Page 39 Illusory Certainty Can Ruin Your Life......Page 41 The Turkey Illusion......Page 44 Bad Luck or Illusory Certainty?......Page 45 The Quest for Certainty......Page 46 3 | Defensive Decision Making......Page 50 To Err Is Human......Page 51 A System That Makes No Errors Is Not Intelligent......Page 53 Good Errors......Page 55 Positive and Negative Error Cultures......Page 56 Why Do Pilots Use Checklists But Most Doctors Don’t?......Page 58 Defensive Decision Making......Page 61 Hire the Second Best......Page 62 Someone Must Be at Fault......Page 63 Defensive Medicine......Page 64 Ninety-three Percent of Doctors Practice Defensive Medicine......Page 65 What to Do?......Page 66 Sign......Page 67 Ask Your Doctors What They Would Do, Not What They Recommend......Page 68 Procedure over Performance......Page 71 4 | Why Do We Fear What’s Unlikely to Kill Us?......Page 73 Social Imitation......Page 75 Christmas Candles......Page 76 Buried Alive......Page 77 Ghosts and Unlucky Numbers......Page 78 Genetically Modified Food......Page 79 Radiation......Page 80 Reassurance......Page 81 Is Risk Aversion a Question of Culture or Personality?......Page 82 Learning the Dangers of the Past from Others......Page 83 What Children Fear......Page 84 Internal Control Can Help Against Anxiety......Page 85 Are Young People More Anxious Today?......Page 86 Internal Control: Skills, Not Looks......Page 87 PART II | Getting Risk Savvy......Page 89 Financial Experts: Gods or Chimps?......Page 90 Will the Dollar or the Euro Go Up?......Page 91 Where Is the Stock Market Going?......Page 93 Anyone Can Become a Market Guru......Page 95 How to Beat a Nobel Prize Portfolio......Page 97 “I Can Do That Myself!”......Page 99 Less Is More: Einstein’s Rule......Page 100 Start Practicing Being Rich......Page 102 The Mother of All Rules of Thumb: Trust......Page 106 Money Mystique......Page 108 Safe Investment: Keep It Simple......Page 109 6 | Leadership and Intuition......Page 111 Do Executives Make Gut Decisions?......Page 112 Hide Your Intuition and Hurt Your Company......Page 116 Are Gut Feelings Taboo Everywhere?......Page 121 The Leader’s Toolbox......Page 122 Good Leadership......Page 124 How to Test Rules of Thumb......Page 125 One Good Reason Can Be Better than Many......Page 126 Less Is More......Page 128 The Nature of Leadership......Page 130 Let’s Make a Deal......Page 132 Risk: Switch Doors in the Monty Hall Problem?......Page 133 Uncertainty: Is Switching Doors Also Best in the Real Show?......Page 135 Street Tricksters......Page 137 How Casinos Deceive You......Page 139 Winning Is Everywhere......Page 140 How Slot Machines Fool You......Page 141 How to Block a Penalty Kick......Page 143 Fast and Frugal Food Choice......Page 144 Fast and Frugal Shopping......Page 147 8 | Getting to the Heart of Romance......Page 149 Whom to Marry?......Page 151 The Mating Game......Page 153 Satisficing......Page 154 Intuitions About the Right Romantic Partner......Page 156 Parents’ Dilemma......Page 159 Condoms......Page 162 Sexual Problems......Page 163 Why Luxury Hotels Dislike Their Stars......Page 165 Helping Doctors Understand Test Results......Page 167 Fear......Page 171 How Natural Frequencies Work......Page 172 Prenatal Screening......Page 175 Dysfunctional Parent-Child Relations......Page 179 Designer Babies......Page 180 Medical Schools Fail......Page 181 First Priority Is Shareholders, Not Patients......Page 182 The SIC Syndrome......Page 183 Bedside Exam or MRI?......Page 185 Ottawa Ankle Rules......Page 186 If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It......Page 189 Free Access to Information......Page 190 10 | Health Care: No Decision About Me Without Me......Page 192 How Rudy Giuliani Was Misled......Page 193 More Men Die with Prostate Cancer Than from It......Page 196 Screening for Prostate Cancer......Page 197 What’s the Benefit?......Page 198 A Word of Warning from the Man Who Discovered PSA......Page 200 Do Doctors Understand Survival Rates?......Page 202 Speaking Double-Tongue......Page 205 Conflicts of Interest......Page 206 Screening for Breast Cancer......Page 207 What’s the Benefit?......Page 208 What’s the Harm?......Page 210 Infantilizing Women......Page 211 Tricking Women in Three Languages......Page 212 What Do Men and Women Know?......Page 214 Cancer Drugs......Page 218 Prevention: Make People Risk Savvy......Page 221 Cigarette Smoking Causes 20 to 30 Percent of All Cancers.......Page 222 Obesity, Diet, and Physical Inactivity Cause 10 to 20 Percent of All Cancers.......Page 224 CT Scans Cause About 2 Percent of All Cancers.......Page 226 No Decision About Me Without Me......Page 227 Simple Rules for a Safer World......Page 229 The Bankers’ New Clothes......Page 230 The Turkey Illusion......Page 231 Safety Rules......Page 233 Why Isn’t Leverage the Center of Banking Regulation?......Page 235 Survival of the Fattest......Page 236 Dread Risks......Page 237 Beef Scare......Page 238 Pig Scare......Page 240 Governments......Page 244 PART III | START EARLY......Page 245 12 | Revolutionize School......Page 246 Teaching Risk Literacy......Page 247 Fourth Graders Can Solve It......Page 248 Don’t Teach for Tests, Teach for Life......Page 252 Health Literacy......Page 254 Financial Literacy......Page 256 Digital Risk Competence......Page 257 Digital Risk Literacy......Page 259 Digital Self-Control......Page 260 Everyone Can Learn to Deal with Risk and Uncertainty......Page 261 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS......Page 263 GLOSSARY......Page 265 NOTES......Page 279 REFERENCES......Page 293 INDEX......Page 304 ILLUSTRATION CREDITS......Page 323