The economic consequences of climate change.

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Net Zero by 2050 - A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector Foreword Acknowledgements Table of Contents Summary for policy makers Chapter 1 - Announced net zero pledges and the energy sector 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Emissions reduction targets and net zero pledges 1.2.1 Nationally Determined Contributions 1.2.2 Net‐zero emissions pledges 1.3 Outlook for emissions and energy in the STEPS 1.3.1 CO2 emissions 1.3.2 Total energy supply, total final consumption and electricity generation 1.3.3 Emissions from existing assets 1.4 Announced Pledges Case 1.4.1 CO2 emissions 1.4.2 Total energy supply 1.4.3 Total final consumption 1.4.4 Electricity generation Chapter 2 - A global pathway to net-zero CO₂ emissions in 2050 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Scenario design 2.2.1 Population and GDP 2.2.2 Energy and CO2 prices 2.3 CO2 emissions 2.4 Total energy supply and final energy consumption 2.4.1 Total energy supply 2.4.2 Total final consumption 2.5 Key pillars of decarbonisation 2.5.1 Energy efficiency 2.5.2 Behavioural change 2.5.3 Electrification 2.5.4 Renewables 2.5.5 Hydrogen and hydrogen‐based fuels 2.5.6 Bioenergy 2.5.7 Carbon capture, utilisation and storage 2.6 Investment 2.7 Key uncertainties 2.7.1 Behavioural change Impact of behavioural changes in selected sectors in the NZE How to bring about the behavioural changes in NZE Are net‐zero emissions by 2050 still possible without behavioural change? 2.7.2 Bioenergy and land‐use change Ensuring a sustainable supply of bioenergy Are net‐zero emissions by 2050 possible without expanding land use for bioenergy? 2.7.3 CCUS applied to emissions from fossil fuels Are net‐zero emissions by 2050 possible without fossil fuel‐based CCUS? Chapter 3 - Sectoral pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Fossil fuel supply 3.2.1 Energy trends in the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario Oil Natural gas Coal 3.2.2 Investment in oil and gas 3.2.3 Emissions from fossil fuel production 3.3 Low‐emissions fuel supply 3.3.1 Energy trends in the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario 3.3.2 Biofuels 3.3.3 Hydrogen and hydrogen‐based fuels 3.3.4 Key milestones and decision points Biofuels Hydrogen‐based fuels 3.4 Electricity sector 3.4.1 Energy and emissions trends in the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario 3.4.2 Key milestones and decision points 3.5 Industry 3.5.1 Energy and emission trends in the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario Chemicals production Iron and steel production Cement production 3.5.2 Key milestones and decision points 3.6 Transport 3.6.1 Energy and emission trends in the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario Road vehicles Aviation Maritime shipping Rail 3.6.2 Key milestones and decision points 3.7 Buildings 3.7.1 Energy and emission trends in the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario Zero‐carbon‐ready buildings What is a zero‐carbon‐ready building? Heating and cooling Appliances and lighting 3.7.2 Key milestones and decision points Chapter 4 - Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Economy 4.2.1 Investment and financing 4.2.2 Economic activity 4.2.3 Employment 4.3 Energy industry 4.3.1 Oil and gas 4.3.2 Coal 4.3.3 Electricity 4.3.4 Energy‐consuming industries 4.4 Citizens 4.4.1 Energy‐related Sustainable Development Goals Energy access Air pollution and health 4.4.2 Affordability Total spending on energy Household spending on energy 4.4.3 Behavioural changes 4.5 Governments 4.5.1 Energy security Oil and gas security Electricity security 4.5.2 Infrastructure 4.5.3 Tax revenues from retail energy sales 4.5.4 Innovation Governments drive innovation in the NZE 4.5.5 International co‐operation Annexes Annex A - Tables for scenario projections General note to the tables Data sources Definitional note: A.1. Energy supply and transformation table Definitional note: A.2. Energy demand table Definitional note: A.3. Electricity tables Definitional note: A.4. CO2 emissions table Definitional note: A.5. Economic and activity indicators Annex B - Technology costs Electricity generation Batteries and hydrogen Annex C - Definitions Units General conversion factors for energy Currency conversions Definitions Regional and country groupings Country notes Abbreviations and Acronyms Annex D - References Chapter 1: Announced net zero pledges and the energy sector Chapter 2: A global pathway to net‐zero CO₂ emissions in 2050 Chapter 3: Sectoral pathways to net‐zero emissions by 2050 Chapter 4: Wider implications of achieving net‐zero emissions Annex B: Technology costs Blank Page