China‘s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, October 2018

Description

This report is a partial result of the China’s Quarterly Macroeconometric Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR is one of the Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China, focusing on China’s economic growth and macroeconomic policy. The CMR started to develop the CQMM for purpose of short-term forecasting, policy analysis, and simulation in 2005.Based on the CQMM, the CMR and its partners hold press conferences to release forecasts for China’ major macroeconomic variables. Since July 2006, twenty-four quarterly reports on China’s macroeconomic outlook have been presented and eleven annual reports have been published.This 25th quarterly report was presented at the Forum on China’s Macroeconomic Outlook and Press Conference of CQMM on October 25, 2018. This conference was jointly held by SOAS London University, Xiamen University, and Economic Information Daily in London, UK. Front Matter ....Pages i-xvii China’s Economic Performance in the First Half of 2018 ( Center for Macroeconomic Research)....Pages 1-15 Quarterly Forecast for 2018–19 ( Center for Macroeconomic Research)....Pages 17-30 Policy Simulation: Effects of Changes in the Household Debt Ratio on China’s GDP Growth ( Center for Macroeconomic Research)....Pages 31-42 Policy Implications and Suggestions ( Center for Macroeconomic Research)....Pages 43-48 Back Matter ....Pages 49-57