The Importance of Campaign Promises
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Description
Campaign promises are a cornerstone of representative democracy. Candidates make promises to signal to voters their intentions in office and voters evaluate candidates based on those promises. This study unpacks the theorized pathway regarding campaign promises: not whether promises are kept, but what purpose promises serve, what they signal, and how they affect voter decision-making. The author explores the pathways and conditions influencing promises and finds that promises tend to have a polarizing effect on voters' opinions of politicians, attracting similarly-positioned voters and strongly repelling voters who disagree with a candidate's position. In addition, voters perceive promise breakers as less honest and less likely to follow through than candidates who more weakly took the same position. With a wealth of data and fascinating case studies, this book is full of important insights into electoral psychology and the study of promises, campaigning, and representation. Cover Half-title Title page Copyright information Dedication Contents List of Figures List of Tables Acknowledgments Part I Why and How Promises Matter 1 A Closer Look at Campaign Promises 1.1 What Are Campaign Promises? 1.2 Understanding How Promises Affects Voters Matters for Understanding Representation 1.3 Exploring the Effect of Campaign Promises 2 Promises as Signals of Commitment 2.1 Promissory Representation: A Critical Element of Representation 2.2 Assessing Representation and Campaign Promises 2.3 Promises as Signals of Commitment 2.4 Commitment, Promise Fulfillment, and Retrospective Judgments 2.5 Conclusion Part II Promises as a Special Type of Position-Taking 3 Campaign Promises from 1960 to 2012 3.1 Measuring Candidate Positions: Building a Corpus 3.2 Coding Reliability 3.3 Results: Promises in the Debates 3.4 Conclusion 4 Voter Perceptions of Promises 4.1 Rationale for the Measuring the Effect of Promises 4.2 Study 1: The Promise Definition Study 4.3 Study 2: Promises and Commitment 4.4 Conclusion Part III The Effect of Promises on Voter Behavior 5 How Promises Polarize Voters 5.1 Study 1: Promises and Vote Choice 5.2 Study 2: Promises and Pathways 5.3 Conclusion 6 Further Testing the Effects of Promises 6.1 Study 1: Paired Candidate Partisan Experiment 6.2 Study 2: Promises and Oversaturation 6.3 Conclusion 7 Promising in Retrospect 7.1 The Retrospective Promise Experiment 7.2 Study 2: Excuses, Excuses 7.3 Conclusion 8 Promises in 2016 and beyond 8.1 Promises in the 2016 Election 8.2 Position-Taking in the 2016 Elections 8.3 Promises and Normative Theory 8.4 Promises and Voter Behavior 8.5 Promises and Campaigns Bibliography Index
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