E. T. Jaynes: Papers on Probability, Statistics and Statistical Physics

Description

The first six chapters of this volume present the author's 'predictive' or information theoretic' approach to statistical mechanics, in which the basic probability distributions over microstates are obtained as distributions of maximum entropy (Le. , as distributions that are most non-committal with regard to missing information among all those satisfying the macroscopically given constraints). There is then no need to make additional assumptions of ergodicity or metric transitivity; the theory proceeds entirely by inference from macroscopic measurements and the underlying dynamical assumptions. Moreover, the method of maximizing the entropy is completely general and applies, in particular, to irreversible processes as well as to reversible ones. The next three chapters provide a broader framework - at once Bayesian and objective - for maximum entropy inference. The basic principles of inference, including the usual axioms of probability, are seen to rest on nothing more than requirements of consistency, above all, the requirement that in two problems where we have the same information we must assign the same probabilities. Thus, statistical mechanics is viewed as a branch of a general theory of inference, and the latter as an extension of the ordinary logic of consistency. Those who are familiar with the literature of statistics and statistical mechanics will recognize in both of these steps a genuine 'scientific revolution' - a complete reversal of earlier conceptions - and one of no small significance Front Matter....Pages i-xxiv Introductory Remarks....Pages 1-3 Information Theory and Statistical Mechanics I (1957)....Pages 4-16 Information Theory and Statistical Mechanics II (1957)....Pages 17-38 Brandeis Lectures (1963)....Pages 39-76 Gibbs vs Boltzmann Entropies (1965)....Pages 77-86 Delaware Lecture (1967)....Pages 87-113 Prior Probabilities (1968)....Pages 114-130 The Well-Posed Problem (1973)....Pages 131-148 Confidence Intervals vs Bayesian Intervals (1976)....Pages 149-209 Where Do We Stand on Maximum Entropy? (1978)....Pages 210-314 Concentration of Distributions at Entropy Maxima (1979)....Pages 315-336 Marginalization and Prior Probabilities (1980)....Pages 337-375 What is the Question? (1981)....Pages 376-400 The Minimum Entropy Production Principle (1980)....Pages 401-424 Back Matter....Pages 425-434