A Manager's Guide for Better Decision-Making: Easy to Apply Tools and Techniques

Description

An important activity for an organization’s leaders and managers is making decisions associated with problem-solving. Making decisions is a complex endeavor where choices are made from courses of action where resources are limited and in the presence of constraints. Written as a guide, this book offers a quantitative approach to decision-making. The process of decision-making is presented from a holistic point of view. This book offers a basic understanding of the issues and processes involved in decision-making by presenting the tools associated with problem analysis, tools that enable developing choices, as well as tools used to normalize judgment criteria achievement so that they are comparable across measures using different scales. Several solution methods for decision problems that have one evaluation criterion are explained first. Methods for problems with multiple criteria for evaluating alternate solutions are discussed as well. The multiple criteria methods include those that do not require any explicit preference or trade-off information from the decision-maker and those that do require the decision-maker’s preference or trade-off information. The intended audience of the book includes technical and nontechnical professionals, managers, and supervisors at all levels, and engineering and business educators. The book would also be useful to undergraduate students, beginning graduate students, and recent graduates of professional programs, or in mathematics, computer science, natural sciences, and humanities. Cover Half Title Series Page Title Page Copyright Page Dedication Contents Acknowledgments Preface About the Author Chapter 1: Introduction 1.1. Overview 1.2. Two Examples of Complex Decision Problems 1.2.1. A Public Sector Example Problem 1.2.2. A Private Sector Example Problem 1.3. Example Problem 1.1 1.4. Some Definitions 1.5 Concept of a ‘Best’ Solution 1.6. Creative Problem-Solving 1.7. Why are Decisions Hard to Make? 1.8. The Decision-Making Process 1.9. Explanation of The Mathematical Notations Used 1.10. Classification of Decision Problems Chapter 2: Tools for Problem Analysis 2.1. Introduction 2.2. Flowchart 2.2.1. An Example of a Process and Its Flowchart 2.3. Check Sheet 2.3.1. Steps in Creating Check Sheets 2.3.2. An Example of a Check Sheet 2.4. Histogram 2.4.1. An Example of a Histogram 2.5. Pareto Chart 2.5.1. An Example of a Pareto Chart 2.6. Cause-and-Effect (C-E) Diagram 2.6.1. A C-E Diagram Analysis Example 2.7. Affinity Diagram 2.7.1. An Affinity Diagram Example 2.8. Tree Diagram 2.8.1. A Tree Diagram Example 2.9. Problem Analysis Method Selection Roadmap Chapter 3: Developing Alternatives and Criteria 3.1: Overview 3.2. Creativity Blocks to Alternatives and Evaluation Criteria Development 3.3. Techniques for Enhancing Creativity 3.3.1. Idea Checklist 3.3.2. Brainstorming 3.3.3. SWOT Analysis 3.3.4. Nominal Group Technique (NGT) 3.3.5. Delphi Technique Chapter 4: Measurement, Normalization, and Weights 4.1. Overview 4.2. Example Problems 4.2.1. Example Problem 4.1 4.2.2. Example Problem 4.2 4.2.3. Example Problem 4.3 4.2.4. Example Problem 4.4 4.2.5. Example Problem 4.5 4.2.6. Example Problem 4.6 4.3. Measurement and Scales of Measurement 4.4. Normalization 4.4.1. Linear Normalization 4.4.1.1. Solution of Problem 4.1 Using Linear Normalization 4.4.2. Vector Normalization 4.4.2.1. Solution of Problem 4.1 Using Vector Normalization 4.5. Generation of Weights 4.5.1. Weights from Criteria Ranks 4.5.1.1. Solution of Problem 4.2 Using Criteria Ranks Method 4.5.2. Weights from Pair-wise Ranking of Criteria 4.5.2.1. Solution of Problem 4.3 Using the Pair-wise Ranking of Criteria Method 4.5.3. Rating Method 4.5.3.1. Solution of Problem 4.4 Using Rating Method 4.5.4. Allocation Method 4.5.4.1. Solution of Problem 4.5 Using Allocation Method 4.5.5. Geometric Mean Method 4.5.5.1. Solution of Problem 4.6 Using Geometric Mean Method Chapter 5: Single Criterion Decision Problems 5.1. Overview 5.2. Example Problems 5.2.1. Example Problem 5.1 5.2.2. Example Problem 5.2 5.2.3. Example Problem 5.3 5.3. Single Criterion Decision Problems with no Uncertainty 5.3.1. Single Criterion Optimization Method 5.3.1.1. Solution of Problem 5.1 Using Single Criterion Optimization Method 5.4. Single Criterion Decision Problems with Uncertainty 5.4.1. Laplace Method 5.4.1.1. Solution of Problem 5.2 Using Laplace Method 5.4.2. Max-Min Method 5.4.2.1. Solution of Problem 5.2 Using Max-Min Method 5.4.3. Min-Max Regret Method 5.4.3.1. Solution of Problem 5.2 Using Min-Max Regret Method 5.4.4. Expected Value Method 5.4.4.1. Solution of Problem 5.2 Using Expected Value Method 5.4.5. Decision Tree Method 5.4.5.1. Solution of Problem 5.3 Using Decision Tree Method Chapter 6: Multiple Criteria Decision Problems 6.1. Overview 6.2. Example Problems 6.2.1. Problem 6.1 6.2.2. Problem 6.2 6.2.3. Problem 6.3 6.3. Multiple Criteria Methods Requiring no Preference Information 6.3.1. Min-Max Regret Method 6.3.1.1. Solution of Problem 6.1 Using Min-Max Regret Method 6.3.2. Compromise Programming Method 6.3.2.1. Solution of Problem 6.1 Using Compromise Programming Method 6.4. Multiple Criteria Methods Requiring Preference Information 6.4.1. Effective Value Method 6.4.1.1. Solution of Problem 6.1 Using Effective Value Method 6.4.2. TOPSIS Method 6.4.2.1. Solution of Problem 6.1 Using TOPSIS Method 6.4.3. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Method 6.4.3.1. Solution of Problem 6.2 Using AHP Method 6.4.3.2. Solution of Problem 6.3 Using AHP Method Postscript References Index