Armenia’s Velvet Revolution: Authoritarian Decline and Civil Resistance in a Multipolar World

Description

In April 2018, Armenia experienced a remarkable popular uprising leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan and his replacement by protest leader Nikol Pashinyan. Evoking Czechoslovakia’s similarly peaceful overthrow of communism 30 years previously, the uprising came to be known as Armenia’s ‘Velvet Revolution’: a broad-based movement calling for clean government, democracy and economic reform. This volume examines how a popular protest movement, showcasing civil disobedience as a mass strategy for the first time in the post-Soviet space, overcame these unpromising circumstances. Situating the events in Armenia in their national, regional and global contexts, different contributions evaluate the causes driving Armenia’s unexpected democratic turn, the reasons for regime vulnerability and the factors mediating a non-violent outcome. Drawing on comparative perspectives with democratic transitions across the world, this book will be essential reading for those interested in the regime dynamics, social movements and contested politics of contemporary Eurasia, as well as policy-makers and practitioners in the fields of democracy assistance and human rights in an increasingly multipolar world Title Page Copyright Page Contents Illustrations Figure Tables Contributors Foreword Acknowledgements Introduction: An unlikely transition? The events of April–May 2018 Domestic constraints on a democratic breakthrough International constraints on democratic transition Chapter guide References Chapter 1: Velvet is not a colour: Armenia’s democratic transition in a global context Introduction From people to parliament: The dual transition of Armenia’s Velvet The patterns of mass mobilization: From Bahrain to Brazil Stateness for and against democracy Conclusion: Theoretical and policy implications from Armenia’s Velvet Notes References Chapter 2: Thirty years of protest: How Armenia’s legacy of political and civic protests prepared the Velvet Revolution Peaceful protest under the Soviet system: Protest mobilization in Armenia before 1991 Before protest became ‘mainstream’: Mobilizations after disputed elections in post-Soviet Armenia Small but efficient: Civic activism and protest in pre-revolutionary Armenia Writing on the wall: ‘Electric Yerevan’ and Sasna Tsrer Epilogue: From Freedom Square to Republic Square Note References Chapter 3: How Serzh Sargsyan and the Republican Party of Armenia lost control of a competitive authoritarian system Introduction The sources of competitive politics in Armenia Authoritarian endurance in Armenia: legitimation, repression and co-optation The Velvet Revolution as legitimation failure, coercive decline and co-optation success Conclusion Acknowledgements Notes References Chapter 4: Armenian civil society: Growing pains, honing skills and possible pitfalls Introduction Armenian civil society: Three decades of development Stage I: The Karabakh movement and humanitarian aid (1988–91) Stage II: NGO-ization of Armenian civil society (1992–2006) Stage III: Re-emergence of civic activism (2007–18) Stage IV: A new ‘post-revolutionary’ stage? The role of civil society in the Velvet Revolution Civil society after 2018: Potential pitfalls Conclusion Notes References Chapter 5: Donning the Velvet: Non-violent resistance in the Introduction Non-violent resistance Non-violent resistance in the Velvet Revolution Activating unity, strategy and non-violent discipline Democratization after non-violent resistance Remaining challenges Conclusion Notes References Chapter 6: Armenia’s transition: The challenges of geography, geopolitics and multipolarity Introduction Revisiting the ABCs of Armenian strategy: Adaptation, balancing and ‘complementarity’ – and velvet Multipolarity and a new crisis of confidence The imperative of a ‘small state strategy’ Conclusion: Promise and peril References Chapter 7: Preserving the alliance against tall odds: Armenia’s Velvet Revolution as a challenge to Russia Introduction An asymmetric partnership shaped by security dependency Eroding Russian dominance over Caucasian geopolitics Russia’s unwavering stance against revolutions Extensive Russian use of political corruption Russian responses to the Velvet surprise: Shock and ambivalence Possible Russian manipulations of post-revolutionary Armenia Conclusion References Chapter 8: Political patriarchy: Gendered hierarchies, paternalism, and public space in Armenia’s ‘Velvet Revolution’ Decentralized protest and gendered hierarchies The problem of propriety Political/public space and paternalism Conclusion References Chapter 9: Democratization and diaspora: The Velvet Revolution and the Armenian nation abroad Diasporas and pro-democracy revolutions? Identity gerrymandering: The Armenian state’s approach to diaspora relations A tale of two diasporas: Western and post-Soviet The diaspora as a force for continuity The Velvet Revolution: Limited diaspora involvement Organizational inaction Diaspora celebrities play a supporting role From Russia, with cautious neutrality Post-Revolution: Continuity or change in state-diaspora relations? A ‘Velvet Revolution’ in the diaspora? A Velvet Revolution in state-diaspora relations? Notes References Conclusion: What’s next for Armenia? Authoritarian reserves and risks in a democratic state Authoritarian decline, persistence and reserves Sustained civic activism, institutional erosion and the rebirth of political parties Multipolarity, neo-imperialism and regional fracture Overcoming the false choice between security and democracy A democratic dyad in the South Caucasus From crude to calibrated: the three ‘Cs’ in saving the liberal order References Index