ENGLISH

Prediction Markets: Fundamentals, Designs, and Applications

By Markus Franke , Christof Weinhardt , Stefan Luckner , Jan Schroder , Bernd Skiera , Andreas Geyer-Schulz , Christian Slamka , Jan Schr Der , Martin Spann

Book information

Publisher
Gabler Verlag
Year
2012
ISBN
3834933589, 9783834933584
Language
english
Format
PDF
Filesize
2 MB (2041457 bytes)
Edition
2012
Pages
151\151
Orientation
no
Scanned
no
Time added
2012-02-04 16:00:00

Description

Accurate predictions are essential in many areas such as corporate decision making, weather forecasting and technology forecasting. Prediction markets help to aggregate information and gain a better understanding of the future by leveraging the wisdom of the crowds. Trading prices in prediction markets thus reflect the traders’ aggregated expectations on the outcome of uncertain future events and can be used to predict the likelihood of these events. This book demonstrates that markets are accurate predictors. Results from several empirical studies reported in this work show the importance of designing such markets properly in order to derive valuable predictions. Therefore, the findings are valuable for designing future prediction markets.

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