Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future

Description

Geopolitical Alpha – An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights. Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers.  In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. Dedication Contents Foreword • Steven Drobny Introduction PART ONE: SCAFFOLDING 1 We’re Not in Kansas Anymore 2 The Constraint Framework: Three Pillars 3 The Wizards of Oz PART TWO: THE CONSTRAINTS 4 Politics 5 The Economy and the Market 6 Geopolitics 7 Constitutional and Legal Constraints: The Constraint–Preference Hybrids 8 The Time Constraint: When Preferences Run Down the Clock PART THREE: OPERATIONALIZATION 9 The Art of the Net Assessment 10 Game Theory – It’s Not a Game! 11 Geopolitical Alpha 12 Conclusion Acknowledgements Bibliography Index