Modeling and Simulation of Social-Behavioral Phenomena in Creative Societies: Second International Conference, MSBC 2022 Vilnius, Lithuania, September 21–23, 2022 Proceedings

Description

This book constitutes the joint refereed proceedings of the Second International Conference on Modeling and Simulation of Social-Behavioral Phenomena in Creative Societies, MSBC 2022, held in Vilnius, Lithuania, in September 2022. The 14 full papers and 1 short paper presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 35 submissions. The papers are organized in the following topical sections: simulation of behavioral processes; modeling of sustainability; and data science and modeling. Editorial Organization Contents Simulation of Behavioral Processes Studying Simulated Mobs Using Monte Carlo Method and the Theory of Collective Action 1 Introduction 2 Literature Review 3 Methodology 3.1 The Theoretical Model 3.2 Scenarios a Mobber Could Face 3.3 Model Implementation 4 Results and Analysis 5 Limitation 6 Conclusion and Future Research Directions References Dynamic Approach to Modeling Hierarchical Conflict Situations in Small Groups 1 Introduction 2 Results 2.1 Deterministic Conflict Models 2.2 The Study of Human Relationships Using the Methodology of System Dynamics 2.3 Using Game Theory Methods to Investigate Conflict 2.4 Mathematical Modeling of the Arbitration Procedure in the Normal Distribution of the Arbitrator’s Opinion and in the Pareto Distribution 2.5 Choosing the Best Strategy for Conflict Resolution in Small Teams 3 Discussion and Conclusion References A Cognitive Simulation Model of a Regional Higher Education System 1 Introduction 2 A Cognitive Hierarchical Control Model of a Regional Higher Education System References 3 Description of the Study 4 Parameter Identification 5 Stackelberg Equilibrium 6 Application to HEIs of the Rostov Region 7 Recommendations 8 Conclusions References Behavioral Model of Interaction Between Economic Agents and the Institutional Environment 1 Introduction 2 Structuring the Internal Filling of Socio-economic Systems and the Institutional Structure of Society 3 Model Space as a Field of Interaction Between Economic Agents and Public Institutions 4 Economic Agents and Their Model Characteristics: Mentality, Performance, Satisfaction 5 Mechanisms for Finding Equilibrium in the System “Mentality of Economic Agents – Public Institutions” 6 Software Implementation of the Model and Analysis of the Results of Experiments 7 Conclusion References Attitudes to Vaccination: How the Opinion Dynamics Affects the Influenza Epidemic Process 1 Introduction 2 Attitude to Vaccination 3 Opinion Dynamics 3.1 Numerical Simulation of Opinion Dynamics 4 Epidemic Process 4.1 Numerical Simulations of Epidemic Process 5 Conclusions and Future Discussion References Free-Rider Problem: Simulating of System Convergence to Stable Equilibrium State by Means of Finite Markov Chain Models 1 Introduction 2 Economic Kernel of “Free-Rider” Problem 2.1 Wide Occurrence of “Free-Rider” Problem and Attempts at Solution 2.2 Boundaries of Non-rivalry in Consumption, or How a “Free-Rider” Violates the Interests of His Immediate Circle 2.3 The Main Principles of Model Construction 3 Numerical Aspect: Markov Models of a Process 3.1 The Problem of Counterfeiter 3.2 The Problem of Off-the-Book Wages 4 Conclusion and Discussion References Modeling of Sustainability Econometric Modeling of Adaptation of the Russian Economy to Western Countries’ Sanctions 1 Introduction 2 Designations, Prerequisites, and Statistical Information 3 Methods 4 A Model for Adapting the Russian Economy to Western Sanctions 5 Results of Testing the Hypothesis of Scientific and Technological Progress in the Russian Economy 6 The Second Stage of the Methodology for Constructing Variants of the Production Function of the Russian Economy: A Study of the Stability of Coefficient Estimates and an Assessment of the Accuracy of Ex-Post Forecasting 7 Results 8 Conclusions References Improved Free Disposal Hull Methodology for China Provinces Effective Social-Economic Development Modeling 1 Introduction 2 Methodology 3 Application of the New Models in Assessing China’ Socio-economic Development 4 Conclusion References Dynamics of the Long-Term Orientation in Russian Society Over the Past 100 years: Results of the Analysis of the Russian Subcorpus of Google Books Ngram 1 Introduction 2 Objectives and Methods 3 Results 4 Conclusion References Sustainable Development Issues of the Belt and Road Initiative in Educational Modeling Cases 1 Introduction 2 Literature Review 2.1 Belt and Road Initiative Towards Sustainability in Education 2.2 Education Towards SDG Implementation 3 Methodology 4 Conclusion References Carbon Dioxide Emissions Modelling Along the Route Using Various Transportation Modes 1 Introduction 2 Literature Review 3 Methodology 3.1 Data 3.2 Research Methodology 4 Krasnoyarsk-Hani Case Calculation Results 5 Conclusion References Data Science and Modeling Research on the Prediction of Highly Cited Papers Based on PCA-BPNN 1 Introduction 2 Review of Related Studies 3 Data and Methods 3.1 Problem Definition 3.2 Feature Analysis 3.3 Data Sources and Analysis 3.4 Data Labeling and Standardization 3.5 Prediction Models 3.6 Evaluation Indicators 4 Experiment and Result Analysis 5 Conclusion and Future Work References Logical Dimension in Modeling 1 Introduction 2 Tolerance Relations and Substructural Logics 3 The Arrow and Fisher-Lynch-Paterson Impossibility Theorems 4 Efficient Market Hypothesis and Efficient Computability 5 Conclusion References Quantification of Textual Responses To Open-Ended Questions In Big Data 1 Introduction to the Problem: “Open-Ended Questions” as a Big Challenge but also a Good Redoubt for Social Survey Research 2 Illustration of the Problem Solutions and New Methodological Issues 3 Conclusions References Optimization of Works Management of the Investment Project 1 Introduction 2 Deterministic Problem Statement 3 Two-Criteria Models for Assessing the Effectiveness of Schedules 4 Sustainability Analysis of Timetables References Author Index