Crossing The Red Line: The Nuclear Option

Description

This book addresses the incentives for nations to develop nuclear weapons and the technical expertise needed for that purpose. Ballistic missiles are required by any nation wanting to optimize the effectiveness of deterrence and the threat derived from possessing nuclear weapons. The basic science of ballistic missile programs is discussed using the North Korean program as an example, although to some extent the programs of other countries are also covered. In addition, there is an introduction to the basics of nuclear weapons technology. Unlike most books on these topics, this one includes, besides the technical component, the policy aspects surrounding nuclear weapons. It also shows how nuclear weapons can — and have — stabilized conflicts, discussing why the concept of deterrence may not always be relied upon to prevent war. The origin of terrorism in the Middle East and the possibility of nuclear terrorism originating from that region are other topics of interest. Table of Contents Dedication Preface Origins Overkill Stability The Nuclear Option in the 21st Century The Ability to make Nuclear Weapons Developing Nation Nuclear Policies Controlling the Spread of Nuclear Weapons North Korea and the Bomb What North Korea Might Believe it could Achieve with Nuclear Weapons Underground Nuclear Explosions and Seismology Proof of Principle and Weaponization How Much Weapons‐Grade Fissile Material could North Korea Have? How Many Bombs Could North Korea Have? Nuclear Tests Rocket Fundamentals Multistaged Rockets The North Korean Rocket Program Nuclear Proliferation and its Consequences Middle East The China–India–Pakistan Nuclear Triangle India Pakistan What Can be Done? Iran Prevention, Preemption, and Defense Prevention Preemption Defense The Future Control of Nuclear Weapons North Korea Negotiations 2018 A Formal End to the Korean War A Non‐Aggression Treaty A Comprehensive End to Sanctions Minimal U.S. Requirements Afterword Appendix A: North Korean Ballistic Missiles and US Missile Defense The Rockets Powered by the Engines Why Efficient Rocket Motors are Important The Musudan Rocket North Korea’s Heritage of Russian Liquid Rocket Motors The Beginning of the North Korean Missile Development “Breakout” of 2017 The Game Changer – The Russian RD‐250 Rocket Motor The End Result of the North Korean “Breakout” of 2017— A True ICBM Analytical Findings What Does All This Mean? Atmospheric Reentry: The Challenge to Nuclear Weapon Design A Ballistic Missile Defense That Could Counter North Korean ICBMs Final Observations on the Missile Defense Question Appendix B: Nuclear Terrorism Carson Mark’s Article Subnational Groups Gun‐Type Devices and Reactor‐Grade Plutonium The 1962 Test Designs using Reactor‐Grade Plutonium with No Yield Reduction Appendix C: A Short Background on China Appendix D: A History of Islamic Terrorism I. Introduction II. The Arab Spring III. Middle East Chaos IV. Some History The Assassins Index