OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2021-2030.

Description

Foreword Acknowledgements Abbreviations and acronyms Currencies Summary table for country grouping in the Statistical Annex Summary table for regional grouping of countries Executive Summary 1 Agricultural and food markets: Trends and prospects 1.1. Introduction 1.2. Macroeconomic and policy assumptions 1.2.1. The main assumptions underlying the baseline projections 1.2.2. Population growth 1.2.3. GDP growth and per capita income growth 1.2.4. Exchange rates and inflation 1.2.5. Input costs 1.2.6. Policy considerations 1.3. Consumption 1.3.1. Adjustments expected in the structure of agricultural commodity demand 1.3.2. Agricultural demand growth is slowing and mostly driven by population growth 1.3.3. Low and middle income countries are the source of most food demand growth 1.3.4. Limited convergence in diets expected over the coming decade 1.3.5. Increasing gap in animal protein consumption between low-income countries and middle and high-income countries High-income countries: Near saturation levels, health and sustainability concerns limit growth in animal protein consumption Middle-income countries: Growing per capita incomes spur animal protein consumption Low-income countries: Slow income growth prevents growth in animal protein consumption 1.3.6. Feed use: Between efficiency gains and intensification 1.3.7. Asian middle-income countries drive biofuel demand growth 1.4. Production 1.4.1. Low and middle-income countries drive global production growth 1.4.2. Yield increases drive crop production growth Yields Cropping intensity Land use 1.4.3. Livestock and fish production concentrated in a few countries 1.4.4. Poultry to account for more than half of the global growth in meat production 1.4.5. Dairy will be the fastest expanding livestock sector 1.4.6. Slowing growth in aquaculture limits growth of global fish production 1.4.7. The carbon intensity of agricultural production is declining 1.5. Trade 1.5.1. Growth in agricultural and fish trade is slowing 1.5.2. Trade relative to output is stabilising 1.5.3. Increasing differentiation between net exporting and net importing regions Traditional suppliers increase their trade surplus Rising trade deficits among countries with rapid population growth and/or natural resources constraints 1.5.4. Trade plays a growing role in ensuring food security and nutrition About 20% of calories consumed cross borders Diversified diets depend on trade 1.5.5. Exports are critical to livelihoods in many countries 1.5.6. Change in policies can affect trade projections 1.6. Prices 1.6.1. Historical price trends 1.6.2. Main drivers of medium-term price trends 1.6.3. Commodity price trends 1.6.4. Transmission of price signals within the global food system 1.6.5. Uncertainties References Notes 2 Regional briefs 2.1. Introduction 2.2. Regional outlook: Asia and Pacific 2.2.1. Background 2.2.2. Production 2.2.3. Consumption 2.2.4. Trade 2.3. Regional outlook: Sub Saharan Africa 2.3.1. Background 2.3.2. Production 2.3.3. Consumption 2.3.4. Trade 2.4. Regional outlook: Near East and North Africa 2.4.1. Background 2.4.2. Production 2.4.3. Consumption 2.4.4. Trade 2.5. Regional outlook: Europe and Central Asia 2.5.1. Background 2.5.2. Production 2.5.3. Consumption 2.5.4. Trade 2.6. Regional outlook: North America 2.6.1. Background 2.6.2. Production 2.6.3. Consumption 2.6.4. Trade 2.7. Regional outlook: Latin America and the Caribbean 2.7.1. Background 2.7.2. Production 2.7.3. Consumption 2.7.4. Trade References Notes 3 Cereals 3.1. Projection highlights 3.2. Recent market developments 3.3. Prices 3.4. Production 3.5. Consumption 3.6. Trade 3.7. Main issues and uncertainties 4 Oilseeds and oilseed products 4.1. Projection highlights 4.2. Recent market developments 4.3. Prices 4.4. Oilseed production 4.5. Oilseed crush and production of vegetable oils and protein meal 4.6. Vegetable oil consumption 4.7. Protein meal consumption 4.8. Trade 4.9. Main issues and uncertainties 5 Sugar 5.1. Projections highlights 5.2. Recent market developments 5.3. Prices 5.4. Production 5.5. Consumption 5.6. Trade 5.7. Main issues and uncertainties Notes 6 Meat 6.1. Projection highlights 6.2. Recent market developments 6.3. Prices 6.4. Production 6.4.1. Greenhouse gas emissions will increase slowly 6.5. Consumption 6.6. Trade 6.7. Main issues and uncertainties Notes 7 Dairy and dairy products 7.1. Projection highlights 7.2. Recent market developments 7.3. Prices 7.4. Production 7.5. Consumption 7.6. Trade 7.7. Main issues and uncertainties Note 8 Fish 8.1. Market situation 8.2. Projection highlights 8.3. Prices 8.4. Production 8.5. Consumption 8.6. Trade 8.7. Main issues and uncertainties Notes 9 Biofuels 9.1. Projection highlights 9.2. Recent market development 9.3. Prices 9.4. Production and consumption 9.4.1. United States 9.4.2. The European Union 9.4.3. Brazil 9.4.4. China 9.4.5. Indonesia 9.4.6. Argentina 9.4.7. Thailand 9.4.8. India 9.4.9. Canada 9.4.10. Colombia 9.4.11. Other countries 9.5. Trade 9.6. Main issues and uncertainties Notes 10 Cotton 10.1. Projection highlights 10.2. Recent market developments 10.3. Prices 10.4. Production 10.5. Consumption 10.6. Trade 10.7. Main issues and uncertainties 11 Other products 11.1. Roots and tubers 11.1.1. Market overview 11.1.2. Current market situation 11.1.3. Main drivers for projections 11.1.4. Projection highlights 11.2. Pulses 11.2.1. Market overview 11.2.2. Current market conditions 11.2.3. Main drivers for projections 11.2.4. Projection highlights 11.3. Bananas and major tropical fruits 11.3.1. Market overview 11.3.2. Constraints under COVID-19 11.3.3. Bananas Market situation Projection highlights 11.3.4. Mango, mangosteen and guava Market situation Projection highlights 11.3.5. Pineapple Market situation Projection highlights 11.3.6. Avocado Market situation Projection highlights 11.3.7. Papaya Market situation Projection highlights 11.3.8. Uncertainties Notes Notes Annexes Annex A. Glossary Annex B. Methodology The process of generating the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook The starting point: Creation of an initial baseline Final baseline Sources and assumptions for the macroeconomic projections The underlying Aglink-Cosimo model The methodology of stochastic simulations with Aglink-Cosimo (i) The quantification of the past variability around the trend for each macroeconomic and yield variable separately (ii) The generation of 1 000 sets of possible values for the stochastic variables (iii) The execution of the Aglink-Cosimo model for each of these 1 000 possible alternative sets of values (uncertainty scenarios) Annex C. Statistical Annex