The Security of Critical Infrastructures: Risk, Resilience and Defense

Description

This book analyzes the security of critical infrastructures such as road, rail, water, health, and electricity networks that are vital for a nation’s society and economy, and assesses the resilience of these networks to intentional attacks. The book combines the analytical capabilities of experts in operations research and management, economics, risk analysis, and defense management, and presents graph theoretical analysis, advanced statistics, and applied modeling methods. In many chapters, the authors provide reproducible code that is available from the publisher’s website. Lastly, the book identifies and discusses implications for risk assessment, policy, and insurability. The insights it offers are globally applicable, and not limited to particular locations, countries or contexts. Researchers, intelligence analysts, homeland security staff, and professionals who operate critical infrastructures will greatly benefit from the methods, models and findings presented. While each of the twelve chapters is self-contained, taken together they provide a sound basis for informed decision-making and more effective operations, policy, and defense. Preface Contents About the Authors The Security of Critical Infrastructures: Introduction and Overview 1 The Vulnerability of Critical Infrastructures 2 Contributions and Structure 3 Building Better Infrastructure References Part I Risk Networks of Critical Infrastructures: Cost Estimation and Defense of Attacks 1 Introduction 2 Background 3 Methods 3.1 Operator Model 3.2 Inclusion of Shortage and Formulation in Standard Form 3.3 Modeling an Attack Scenario 3.4 The Attacker-Defender Model 3.5 Application to a Small Example 3.6 Application to the Anytown Network 4 Conclusion and Outlook References Insurability of Critical Infrastructures 1 Introduction 2 Pareto Estimation of Risk Premiums 3 Simulation of Bankruptcy Risk 4 Conclusion References Part II Resilience Deliberate Attacks on Freshwater Supply Systems: A Compartmentalized Model for Damage Assessment 1 Introduction 2 Model Compartments and Parameters 3 Model Dynamics and Damage Calculation 4 Illustration 5 Discussion and Outlook 6 Technical Appendix 6.1 Derivation of System Dynamics 6.2 Effective Impact of an Attack References Mass Casualty Treatment After Attacks on Critical Infrastructure: An Economic Perspective 1 Introduction 2 The Consequences of Mass Casualty Incidents 2.1 Monetary Loss to the Economy 2.2 Strained Medical Emergency Services Capacity 3 Illustration for Three Model Economies 3.1 Parametrization 3.2 Simulation Results 3.3 Minimization of Monetary Loss 4 Discussion References Vulnerability and Resilience of National Power Grids: A Graph-Theoretical Optimization Approach and Empirical Simulation 1 Introduction 2 Analyzing Power Grids Using Graph Theory 2.1 Power Flow Calculation Using Linear Programming 2.2 (N-1) Analysis and Resulting Uncovered Demand 3 Vulnerability Analysis of Power Grids 3.1 Node Removal 3.2 Edge Removal 4 Simulation 4.1 Capacity Model 4.2 Calculation 4.3 Results 4.3.1 Node Removal 4.3.2 Edge Removal 5 Discussion References A Robust Supply Chain Model for a National Economy with Many Goods, Multiple Import Routes, and Compulsory Stockpiling 1 Introduction 2 Model Specification 3 Application 3.1 Simple Illustration 3.2 Complex Disruption Case 3.3 Contingency Analysis for Different Stockpile Configurations 4 Outlook References Assessing the Reliability of Street Networks: A Case Study Based on the Swiss Street Network 1 Introduction 2 Planning Problem 3 Construction of Graph 4 Estimation of Traffic Matrices 5 Formulation of Traffic Flow Model 5.1 Notation 5.2 Constraints 5.3 Objective Function 6 Computational Results 6.1 Illustrative Example 6.2 Application to the Street Network of the City of Bern 6.3 Application to the Swiss Street Network 6.4 Application to Train Networks 7 Conclusion References Securing the Air–Ground Link in Aviation 1 Introduction 2 Classification of Air–Ground Link Incidents and Vulnerabilities 2.1 Security Incidents 2.1.1 ADS-B 2.1.2 SSR 2.1.3 PSR 2.1.4 MLAT 2.1.5 VHF 2.1.6 ACARS 2.1.7 CPDLC 2.2 Privacy Incidents 2.2.1 Tracking-Related Privacy Leaks 2.2.2 Leaks of Personal Data 3 Defense 3.1 Security Countermeasures 3.1.1 Cyber-Physical Security 3.1.2 Machine Learning 3.1.3 Non-technical Measures 3.1.4 Cryptography 3.2 Privacy Countermeasures 3.2.1 Countermeasures Against Tracking 3.2.2 Privacy for Data Links 4 Research Agenda 4.1 Security 4.2 Privacy References Part III Defense On Dependable Cyber-Physical Spaces of Critical Infrastructures 1 Introduction 2 Case Study 2.1 Cyber-Physical Space of a Critical Facility 2.2 Security Scenarios 3 Modeling and Early Design Validation 3.1 Modeling Space with Bigraphs 3.2 Enabling Automated Analysis 3.3 Design-Time Probabilistic Analysis 4 Spatial Verification of Cyber-Physical Spaces at Runtime 4.1 Bigraphical Closure Models at Runtime 4.2 Run-Time Verification of Spatial Properties 5 Related Work and Further Reading 5.1 Application-Oriented Perspective 5.2 Theoretical Perspective 6 Summary and Concluding Remarks References Forensic Analysis as Iterative Learning 1 Introduction 2 Forensic Defense as an Iterative Learning Cycle 2.1 Forensic Preparedness 2.2 Instrumenting Networks to Increase Visibility Over Cyberattacks 2.3 Cyberattack Detection 2.4 Scope Assessment and Eradication 2.5 Capability Development 3 Illustrative Example 4 Conclusion References Defending Critical Infrastructure: Insights from Recommender Systems 1 Introduction 2 Defense Strategy 3 Illustration 4 Evaluation 5 Conclusion References