Decision Analysis for Management Judgment

Description

In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision makers gain insight into the problems they face. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It considers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. The text is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. 1 Introduction 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: alternatives to SMART 5 Introduction to probability 6 Decision making under uncertainty 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams 8 Applying simulation to decision problems 9 Revising judgments in the light of new information 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities 12 Risk and uncertainty management 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia 16 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty 17 Combining scenario planning with decision analysis 18 Alternative decision-support systems and conclusions