ENGLISH

CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union, 1947-1991 : A Documentary Collection

By Gerald K. Haines (Ed.) / Robert E. Leggett (Ed.)

Book information

Publisher
Center for the Study of Intelligence
Year
2001
ISBN
9781929667086
Language
english
Format
PDF
Filesize
23 MB (24353982 bytes)
Pages
320\305
Topic
History
Time added
2021-07-28 14:33:37

Description

Cover Page Preface - by Robert M. Gates, former Director of CIA Introduction A critical view of the analysis A vigorous rejoinder Recent retrospective conferences Analysis during 1947-1991: A Multidisciplinary Review The production of Intelligence Analysis The document selection process A closer look at the newly released materials A large and comprehensive collection The selection of sample documents for the volume Declassified and Released DI and Intelligence Community Documents on the Soviet Union Editors and Contributors to this Volume Editors Haines Leggett Contributors Origin of CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union, 1947-1991 Author's Comments: Donald Steury 1. ORE 22-48 - Possibility of Direct Soviet Military Action During 1948 2. The Strategic Value to the USSR of the Conquest of Western Europe and the Near East (prior to 1950) 3. ORE 22-48 - Addendum 4. ORE 46-49 - Possibility of Direct Soviet Military Action During 1949 5. The Strength and Capabilities of Soviet Bloc Forces to Conduct Military Operations Against NATO 6. Intelligence of the Soviet Bloc Scientific and Technical Intelligence Economic Intelligence Armed Forces Intelligence Analyzing Soviet Politics and Foreign Policy Author's Comments: Douglas Garthoff 7. Soviet Capabilities and Probably Courses of Action Through Mid-1959 Conclusions Discussion 8. The 20th CPSU Congress in Retrospect: Its Principle Issues and Possible Effects on International Communism Pertinent Background Factors The Main Issues of the Congress Internal Aspects External Aspects The Meaning of the Congress for International Communism 9. December 21, 1961 - Memorandum for the Director 1 2 3 - Internal Problems 4 5 6 - Bloc Politics 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 - Foreign Policy 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 10. Basic Factors and Main Tendencies in Current Soviet Policy 11. Soviet Foreign Policies and the Outlook for Soviet-American Relations 12. Changing Soviet Perceptions - Synopsis 13. Impact of a Polish Pope on the USSR 14. Soviet Support for International Terrorism - Key Judgments 15. Soviet Society in the 1980s: Problems and Prospects 16. Gorbachev's Domestic Challenge: The Looming Problems CIA's Analysis of Soviet Science and Technology Author's Comments: Clarence Smith 17. Intelligence Memorandum No. 237 - Capabilities of the USSR in Air-to-Air Guided Missiles and Related Proximity Fuses Part 1 Part 2 Appendix A 18. Future Soviet Earth Satellite Capabilities 19. Geophysical and Astrophysical Instrumentation of Soviet Sputniks I, II, and III 20. Soviet Capabilities in Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles Foreword The Problem The Estimate Estimated Missile Reliabilities Estimated Reaction Times 21. Memorandum - The Soviet Reconnaissance Satellite Program 22. Soviet Capabilities for Strategic Attack 23. Soviet Strategic Air and Missile Defenses 24. Soviet Military Research and Development 25. 26. Soviet Quest for Supercomputing Capabilities 27. The Krasnoyarsk Radar: Closing the Final Gap in Coverage for Balistic Missile Early Warning 28. The Soviet Weapons Industry: An Overview 29. US Stealth Programs and Technology: Soviet Exploitation of the Western Press 30. The Flat Twin ABM Radar: Not as capable as previously believed Assessing Soviet Economic Performance Author's Comments: James Noren 31. Long-Run Soviet Economic Growth 32. The New Lands Program in the USSR 33. Soviet Military Expenditures by Major Missions (1958-65) 34. Intelligence Report: Investment and Growth in the USSR 35. Soviet Economic and Technological Benefits from Detente 36. Soviet Grain Deficit 37. The Impending Soviet Oil Crisis 38. Soviet Economic Problems and Prospects 39. Organization and Management in the Soviet Economy: The Ceaseless Search for Panaceas 40. Outlook for the Siberia-to-Western Europe Natural Gas Pipeline 41. Gorbachev: Steering the USSR Into the 1990s Estimating Soviet Military Intentions and Capabilities Author's Comments: Raymond Garthoff 42. The Soviet Strategic Military Posture, 1961-1967 43. Capabilities of the Soviet Theater Forces 44. Intelligence Memorandum: Soviet Defense Policy, 1962-1972 45. Summary of Conclusions 46. The Track Record in Strategic Estimating: An Evaluation of the Strategic National Intelligence Estimates, 1966-1975 47. Key Judgments 48. Intelligence Forecasts of Soviet Intercontinental Attack Forces: An Evaluation of the Record 49. The Development of Soviet Military Power: Trends Since 1965 and Prospects for the 1980s

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