The Post-American Middle East: How the World Changed Where the War on Terror Failed

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After two decades of War on Terror, it is particularly important, for both academic and policy purposes, to clearly understand why the US formidable mobilization of means and might has transformed into a such a blatant geostrategic defeat of the US and its allies in the broad Middle East. This is all the more paradoxical that the WOT achieved a series of tactical victories – such as the toppling of hostile regimes in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya; the crippling of the national economies of enemy states by sanctions; the successful targeted killing of lead terrorist Usama Bin Laden, ISIS cult leaders Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi and his successor, etc. So, why have these tactical victories not led to what was supposed to become, according to the US government, a ‘Greater Middle East’? With most authors being from or living in the Middle East, this book is unique as it brings perspectives and answers from the region. This is crucially important as we are entering, we argue, the era of a Post-American Middle East. Chapters 1 and 10 are available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com Preface Contents List of Contributors List of Figures List of Tables 1 Introduction Why This Book? A New Era 9/11/2001 and the War on Terror Structure of This Book References Part I War, Expanding Chaos & Failed State-Building Across the Middle East 2 Afghanistan Since 2001: US Geostrategic Ambitions, a Failed State, and the Return of the Taliban Afghanistan: Why Did Nothing Go as Planned? “To War, Not to Court”. 9/11 and the Rush to War First US Strikes, Capture of Kabul by the Northern Alliance, Bin Laden Disappears The Social and “Liberal” War in Afghanistan: Creating a Society via Military Power? 2002–2010: State-Building, Society-Building: How to “Liberalize” Afghan Society? 2010–2011. The Battle of Marjah: The Victory of the Generals? 2011–2021. Leaving Afghanistan (The Least Damaging Way Possible) The Institutionalization of Instability: The Afghan State Since 2001 Back to the Bonn Legacy: Depoliticizing State Reforms, Overlooking Elite Politics The Puzzle of State Capacity—State Failure International Donors: Centralizing the State—Bypassing the State From State Failure to Regime Illegitimacy: Democratic Disenchantment Democratic Ambitions in Absence of Elite Settlement The Failure of Electoral Democracy Accounting for the Resurgence of the Taliban Movement Re-Anchoring the Taliban Phenomenon in State-Society Relations Overtaking the State, Acting Like a State Conclusion 3 Iraq 2003–2007, Geopolitics of an Imperial Democratization Introduction: Debating American Imperialism in Iraq (2003–2007) Going to Iraq (2001–2002) Changing the Rationale of War and the Neoconservative Influence How to Define the American Empire? Acknowledging the Empire A New Imperial Discourse of Concrete Actions on the Ground—Not Just a Moral Discourse From the Ideological “Imperial Project” (2001) to the “Imperial Moment” on the Ground in Iraq (2003) Was (Also) the Invasion of Iraq a War for Oil? Why the Invasion: The Main Categories of Classical Explanations Are Insufficient in the Case of Iraq Firdos Square, Baghdad, April 9, 2003: The “Benevolent Empire” on the Ground The Failure of the Imperial Moment in Iraq: Social Collapse (2003), the Battle of Fallujah (2004), and the Final Surge as the End of the American Moment (2007) 2003–2004: Social, Economic, and Political Collapse in Occupied Iraq The Battle for Fallujah (2004): Regaining Control by Stabilizing the “Sunni Triangle” “The Surge” (2007): The End of the American Imperial Moment in Iraq Conclusion: On the “Impotence of Power” or Powerlessness of Power in the Middle East 4 The Quasi-Legal Foundations of Rebel Oil Governance: The Case of the Houthis in Yemen Introduction The Crimi-Legal Logics of Rebel Oil Governance Oil and Houthi Rule in Northern Yemen Conclusion References 5 Wars Against Terror in Oil Lands, Russian Interventions, and Chinese Energy Policies: The Case of Northern Iraq and Syria Introduction The Fragile Context of Syria, from Small Oil Exporter to Energy Pauper The Iraqi Oil, Grand Geopolitics and Production Challenges The Failed 2003 Liberation of Iraq’s Oil China’s Energy Policies, Foreign Infrastructure Development, and Implications for Iraq Scenario Analysis and Framework Results of the Energy Scenarios Analysis Conclusion Bibliography Part II Indirect Consequences of the War on Terror and Legacy 6 Violence, Political Instabilities and Large-Scale Migrations in the MENA Region: Libyan, Syrian, and Yemeni Cases in Regional Perspective Introduction I—The Multiple Push Factors Behind MENA Migrations Violence and Political Legacy of the War on Terror II—Effects of the Migration Policies of the EU, Turkey, and the Gulf States on Migrations from Libya, Syria, and Yemen From European Dream to EU Policing Mass Migrations and EU—Turkey Relations EU-Libyan Engagement Criminalisation and the Fear of Radicalisation/Terrorism KSA and the Gulf States: Labour Migrations, No Refugees, and Forced Yemeni Returns The Case of Yemen and Saudi Arabia Conclusion References 7 Overcoming Jihadism in Arabia: Preventing Violent Extremism Policies in the Gulf Monarchies Introduction Setting the Context Preventing Violent Extremism (PVE) in the Literature Methodological Approach and Data Collected Policies and Institutions in the GCC The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia The State of Qatar Kuwait The United Arab Emirates Bahrain The Sultanate of Oman Discussion and Findings Conclusion References 8 Trump and Netanyahu’s Failed Palestine Sell-Out: ‘A Hate Plan, Not a Peace Plan’ Introduction Imperialistic Genealogy of the ‘Deal of the Century’ ‘A Significant Concession’ ‘Woe to the Vanquished’ Mixed Reactions to the Deal Conclusion 9 Geopolitical Polarization, Natural Gas, and Regional Energy (Dis-)Integration in the Middle East and North Africa Introduction Demand, Cooperation, and Tensions Around Natural Gas in the Middle East and Beyond Regional Energy Cooperation, Integration, and Economic Benefits The Weaponization of Natural Gas East Mediterranean Gas, New Dynamics, and the Institutionalization of Tensions Geopolitical Background and the Role of Natural Gas in East-Med Tensions When Geopolitics Dictates Politics and Policies Escalations in Maritime and Diplomatic Disputes Over Gas Resources Turkey and Cyprus Israel and Lebanon Drivers of Tensions Surrounding Natural Gas in the Region The Demographic Factor and Boom in Regional Natural Gas Demand Non-mutually Agreed Operations and Pipeline Politics Exacerbate Old Tensions The Problematic Compositions of the New Gas Fora in a Period of US-Sponsored Polarization Duplication of a Gas Forum Despite Limited Reserves Among EMGF Member Countries Conclusion References 10 Conclusions The Four Why.s of the WOT Failure from a Middle East Perspective The Uncertain Post-American Middle East Joint Threat from China and Russia to the US Role in the Region New Priorities References Annex A: Detailed Description of the Methodology for Chinese-Iraqi Energy Forecasting First Scenario: The Energy Transition Scenario Second Scenario: Energy Diversification of Suppliers Diversification of Energy Supplier Third Scenario: Business as Usual Scenario Evaluation Matrix