China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, February 2017
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This book is a quarterly forecast and analysis report on the Chinese economy. It is published twice a year and presents ongoing results from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM),” a research project at the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. Based on the CQMM, the research team forecasts China’s major macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters, including GDP growth rate, CPI, PPI, investment in fixed assets, household consumption, imports, exports, and foreign reserves. Moreover, it simulates different scenarios to study the effects of macroeconomic policy on the Chinese economy. In addition to helping readers to understand China’s economic trends and policies, this book has three main goals: to help readers understand China’s economic performance; to forecast the major macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy. Front Matter ....Pages i-xvii China Economic Performance in 2016 (Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University)....Pages 1-18 Quarterly Forecast for 2017–18 (Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University)....Pages 19-30 Policy Simulation: Effects of Rebalancing the Chinese Economy (Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University)....Pages 31-46 Policy Implications and Suggestions (Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University)....Pages 47-49 Comments and Discussions (Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University)....Pages 51-58 Back Matter ....Pages 59-65
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