Conflict Analysis: Understanding Causes, Unlocking Solutions
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Praise for Conflict Analysis Title Page Copyright Page Contents Foreword Acknowledgments Introduction Part I: Understanding Deadly Conflict Chapter 1: Global Conflict in the Twenty-First Century Trends Costs of Conflict Perils of Prediction Conflict Analysis and Adaptive Leadership Chapter 2: Causes of Conflict and Peace The Curve of Conflict The Strategic Dimension The Political Dimension The Socioeconomic Dimension The Psychological Dimension The Cultural Dimension Violence as a Strategic Choice Chapter 3: Risk Assessment and Early Warning Early Warning Watchlists Conflict Metrics Instruments Environmental Degradation and Climate Change Genocide and Mass Atrocities Early Warning at the Local Level Part II: Tools for the Trade Chapter 4: Conflict Assessment Frameworks Self-Assessment Gathering Information Four-Step Assessment Process Transition to Planning Chapter 5: Narrative Analysis Listening as a Peacebuilding Technique Who: Leaders and Constituents What and Why: Positions Versus Interests and Needs When: Mythic Histories Where: Territorial Narratives How: Strategy and Tactics Chapter 6: Conflict Mapping and Systems Mapping Conflict Mapping Systems Mapping Chapter 7: Scenario Analysis Scenario-Building Techniques Scenario Analysis in Conflict Management Visualizing Scenarios Selecting and Tracking Indicators Linking Vision to Action Part III: From Analysis to Action Chapter 8: Navigating Cognitive Minefields Groupthink Black Swans Psychic Numbing Chapter 9: Conflict Analysis in the Planning Process Framing the Problem Defining Objectives Situation Analysis Designing a Plan of Action Measuring Progress and Adapting to Change Conclusion: The Value of Collaborative Conflict Analysis Appendices 1. Estimating Mortality from Violent Conflict 2. Early Warning Watchlists and Reports 3. Conflict Metrics 4. Private Strategic Forecasters 5. Conflict Assessment Frameworks 6. U.S. Institute of Peace Narrative Analysis Framework 7. Conflict Mapping Tools 8. Template for a Logical Framework Matrix (Logframe) Glossary Resources Index About the Author United States Institute of Peace Press Board of Directors Back Cover
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