ENGLISH

Doubly Stochastic Models for Volcanic Hazard Assessment at Campi Flegrei Caldera

By Andrea Bevilacqua (auth.)

Book information

Publisher
Edizioni della Normale
Year
2016
ISBN
978-88-7642-556-1, 978-88-7642-577-6
DOI
10.1007/978-88-7642-577-6
Language
english
Format
PDF
Filesize
9 MB (9026935 bytes)
Series
Publications of the Scuola Normale Superiore 21
Edition
1
Pages
\234
Time added
2016-07-20 04:00:00
Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes; Geoph

Description

This study provides innovative mathematical models for assessing the eruption probability and associated volcanic hazards, and applies them to the Campi Flegrei caldera in Italy. Throughout the book, significant attention is devoted to quantifying the sources of uncertainty affecting the forecast estimates. The Campi Flegrei caldera is certainly one of the world’s highest-risk volcanoes, with more than 70 eruptions over the last 15,000 years, prevalently explosive ones of varying magnitude, intensity and vent location. In the second half of the twentieth century the volcano apparently once again entered a phase of unrest that continues to the present. Hundreds of thousands of people live inside the caldera and over a million more in the nearby city of Naples, making a future eruption of Campi Flegrei an event with potentially catastrophic consequences at the national and European levels.

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