A Sultan in Autumn: Erdogan Faces Turkey’s Uncontainable Forces

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Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ruled Turkey for nearly two decades. Here, Soner Cagaptay, a leading authority on the country, offers insights on the next phase of Erdogan’s rule. His dwindling support base at home, coupled with rising opposition, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, and Turkey’s weak economy, would appear to threaten his grip on power. Moreover, Erdogan’s relationship with Russian president Vladimir Putin is fragile, as is his rapport with U.S. president Joe Biden. How will he react? In this exceptional analysis, Cagaptay casts Erdogan as an inventor of nativist populist politics in the twenty-first century. The Turkish president knows how to polarize the electorate to boost his base, and how to wield oppressive tactics when polarization alone cannot win elections. Cagaptay contends that Erdogan will cling to power, by hook or by crook—with unfortunate costs for Turkey’s citizens, institutions, and allies. Turkey is the oldest democracy and the largest economy between Germany and India, and as a result, Erdogan’s moves will have ramifications beyond Turkey’s borders. The associated dynamics—and what they portend for the United States—make A Sultan in Autumn a must read for all those interested in Turkey and the geopolitics of the next decade.