The Art and Science of Making Up Your Mind

Description

The Art and Science of Making Up Your Mind presents basic decision-making principles and tools to help the reader respond efficiently and wisely to everyday dilemmas. Although most decisions are made informally (whether intuitively without deliberate thought, or based on careful reflection), over the centuries people have tried to develop systematic, scientific and structured ways in which to make decisions. Using qualitative counterparts to quantitative models, Rex Brown takes the reader through the basics, like ‘what is a decision’ and then considers a wide variety of real-life decisions, explaining how the best judgments can be made using logical principles.　 Combining multiple evaluations of the same judgment ("hybrid judgment") and exploring innovative analytical concepts (such as "ideal judgment"), this book explores and analyzes the skills needed to master the basics of non-mathematical decision making, and what should be done, using real world illustrations of decision methods. The book is an ideal companion for students of Thinking, Reasoning and Decision-Making, and also for anyone wanting to understand how to make better judgments in their everyday lives. Cover......Page 1 Title Page......Page 6 Copyright Page......Page 7 Table of Contents......Page 8 Editors’ preface......Page 14 1.1: Potential need......Page 16 1.3: Vocabulary......Page 18 1.4: Historical background......Page 19 1.4.2: My own ADT evolution......Page 21 1.5: Looking ahead......Page 23 2.1: What is a decision?......Page 24 2.1.2: Value of wisdom......Page 25 2.2.1: Accounting for all available knowledge......Page 26 2.2.2: Wisdom is no substitute for knowledge......Page 27 2.2.3: Good outcomes may not imply wise decisions......Page 28 2.3.2: Roomfor improvement......Page 29 2.3.3: Motivation for wisdom......Page 30 2.3.4: Opposition to rationality......Page 31 2.3.6: Decision vs. action......Page 32 2.4: Decider roles......Page 33 2.4.2: Civic decisions......Page 34 2.4.3: Civic vs. professional decisions......Page 35 2.5: Student end product......Page 36 2.6.1: Bad outcome — good decision......Page 37 2.6.2: Decider role......Page 38 3.2: Nature of issues to be evaluated......Page 40 3.4: Sample proposals......Page 41 3.5.1: Suggested report sections......Page 42 3.6: Standing assignment after each chapter......Page 43 4.1.1: Prescriptive decision analysis......Page 44 4.2.1: Visualizing option aftermaths......Page 46 4.3.1: Comparing this dilemma with past decisions......Page 48 4.3.3: Adapted decision rules......Page 49 4.4.1: Going through “HOOPS”......Page 50 4.4.2: Caution — Confusing factual and value judgments ......Page 51 4.5.1: Informal reflection......Page 52 4.5.3: Other exercises......Page 53 4.5.4: Distinguishing factual from value judgments......Page 56 5: Hip surgery case......Page 58 5.1.4: Analogy......Page 59 5.2.1: Student participation in hip choice......Page 60 5.2.2: Simplifying the options......Page 61 5.2.3: Choice criteria and option impacts......Page 62 5.3.1: Synthesis at the time......Page 63 5.4: Seekmore information before deciding?......Page 64 5.5.3: A later choice......Page 65 5.6: Exercise......Page 66 6.1.2: Models......Page 68 6.2.2: Applied decision theory models......Page 69 6.2.4: Uncertain utility......Page 70 6.3.1: Basic decision tree mechanics: Simple example......Page 71 6.3.2: “Bachelor Joe” example......Page 72 6.4: Assignments......Page 74 7.1: A baby delivery dilemma......Page 76 7.2: Postscript (sixmonths later)......Page 81 7.3.1: Decision-making issues raised......Page 82 7.4: Exercises......Page 83 8.1: Formal vs. informal evaluations......Page 86 8.2: Caution......Page 87 8.3: Combining ADT with alternative evaluations......Page 88 9.1: Leah’s vote......Page 90 9.2: Abe’s vote......Page 93 9.3: Exercise......Page 95 10.1: Decision strategy......Page 96 10.2: Diagnosis......Page 97 10.3: Assessments imputed to D’s diagnosis......Page 98 10.4: Formal underpinning diagnosis......Page 99 10.5: Does diagnosis warrant testing?......Page 100 10.6: Credit to ADT?......Page 101 10.8: Postscript......Page 102 11.1: Reading, writing and decision making......Page 104 11.2.2: Exercises for end of course......Page 108 12.1.1: Basic ADT logic......Page 110 12.2: Developing your reasoning further......Page 111 Bibliography......Page 114 Index......Page 115