The Psychology of Foreign Policy

Description

This book focuses on foreign policy decision-making from the viewpoint of psychology. Psychology is always present in human decision-making, constituted by its structural determinants but also playing its own agency-level constitutive and causal roles, and therefore it should be taken into account in any analysis of foreign policy decisions. The book analyses a wide variety of prominent psychological approaches, such as bounded rationality, prospect theory, belief systems, cognitive biases, emotions, personality theories and trust to the study of foreign policy, identifying their achievements and added value as well as their limitations from a comparative perspective. Understanding how leaders in world politics act requires us to consider recent advances in neuroscience, psychology and behavioral economics. As a whole, the book aims at better integrating various psychological theories into the study of international relations and foreign policy analysis, as partial explanations themselves but also as facets of more comprehensive theories. It also discusses practical lessons that the psychological approaches offer since ignoring psychology can be costly: decision-makers need to be able reflect on their own decision-making process as well as the perspectives of the others. Paying attention to the psychological factors in international relations is necessary for better understanding the microfoundations upon  which such agency is based. Preface and Acknowledgements Contents About the Authors List of Figures List of Tables 1 Why Does Psychology Matter in International Relations? Metatheorizing Psychology in International Relations Explaining and Understanding Levels Agent and Structure International Relations Grand Theories and Psychology Comparing or Combining Theories? What Do Grand Theories Say About Psychology? Psychology as a Causal Factor in Foreign Policy Decision-Making Foreign Policy Analysis and Psychology Rationality and Psychology Roadmap to the Rest of the Book Bibliography 2 The Cognitive Limitations of Rationality Rational Choice The Core and the Variants Rational Choice as a Middle-Range Theory Bounded Rationality A Satisfactory Decision will Suffice How to Enhance Rationality? Poliheuristic Theory Two Stages of Decision-Making The Non-Compensatory Principle The Primacy of Domestic Policy Applications Soviet Foreign Policy of New Thinking Multilateral Nuclear Forces for NATO? North Korea: Irrational, Rational or Boundedly Rational? Going to War for Domestic Reasons Experimenting with Foreign Policy Discussion Rational Choice Model as an Ideal Type Cognition’s Relationship to Rational Choice What Does Bounded Rationality Really Mean? Does Bounded Rationality, or Poliheuristic Theory, Represent ‘Reality’? How Valid Are These Theories? Conclusion Bibliography 3 Prospects of Loss and Gain Prospect Theory Framing the Decision Loss or Gain? Probabilities Experimental Evidence Applications General Relevance to IR/FPA Eagle Claw, an Operation that Went Wrong The North Korean Decision to Go Nuclear Russia’s Invasion of Crimea Discussion From Laboratory to Foreign Policy Reality? Group Dynamics in Risky Decisions? Is Foreign Policy Behavior Average Human Behavior? The Reference-Point Debate Prospect Theory and Strategic Choice Is Prospect Theory Just Another Type of Rational Choice? Conclusion Bibliography 4 Beliefs That Shape Decisions Theorizing Belief Systems What Is a Belief System? Ideologies as Belief Systems Images—And National Characters Cognitive Maps Operational Code Applications The Case of Soviet Ideology Operational Codes of Foreign Policy Leaders Discussion Are Belief Systems Stable—And if Not, What Does That Mean? What Do Belief System Theories Do? Do Identity and Role Pertain to (Social) Psychology? Can We Trust the Results? Conclusion Bibliography 5 Biased Decisions Theorizing Cognitive Biases Why Do We Have Cognitive Biases—Or Are They Biases at All? Crisis Situations as a Bias Trigger Examples of Biases Confirmation Bias Overconfidence Attribution Bias Cognitive Dissonance Historical Analogies Groupthink and Polythink Applications Confirmation Bias and the End of the Cold War Lessons of Munich The Fiascos of Collective Foreign Policy Decision-Making Discussion Do Cognitive Biases Matter in Foreign Policy—And if so, How? The Ambiguity of Groupthink Conclusion Bibliography 6 Emotional Decisions Theorizing Emotions What Are Emotions? Basic Emotions Measurement of Emotions Rationality and Emotions The Nature of Emotions in Foreign Policy Applications The Variety of Functions of Emotions in International Politics The Politics of Fear The Politics of Anger The Politics of Empathy Discussion The Fuzzy Understandings of Emotions From Emotions to Behavior How to Study Emotions in Foreign Policy? Is the Study of Emotions Reliable and Valid? Conclusion Bibliography 7 Personality Matters Theorizing Personality Psychohistory The Big Five Can Personality Change Over Time? Applications “When You See It in Practice” The Impact of Childhood Experiences Leadership Traits Gender, Personality and Foreign Policy Brief Profiling of Two Leaders: Trump and Putin Trump Putin Discussion Is There a Methodology? The Problems of the Big Five Does It Become Too Complicated? Conclusion Bibliography 8 Relations of Trust and Mistrust Theorizing Trust What Is Trust? Calculated Trust The Culture of Trust The Psychology of Trust IR Grand Theories and Strategies of Trust Applications Initiating Trust: Gorbachev and Reagan Initial Conditions Emerging Trust Developing and Maintaining Trust: Russia and the West Creating Trust Through Unilateral Moves Trust in the Conditions of Changing Leaders Eroding Trust: Putin and the West Discussion What Is Trust Research After All? Empirical Operationalization of Theoretical Trust Research How to Measure Trust? Conclusion Bibliography 9 Psychological Theories from a Comparative Perspective What Are the Underlying Assumptions? Is There a Research Program? How Sound Are the Methodologies? Takeaways for Foreign Policy Practice What Next? Bibliography Annexes Annex A: Trends in the Study of Psychology in IR Selection Criteria Bounded Rationality, Poliheuristic Theory and Prospect Theory Belief Systems Cognitive Biases Emotions Personality and Psychohistory Trust Summary Statistics Annex B: Psychological Theories in IR/FPA from a Comparative Perspective Index