ENGLISH

Debt Dynamics and Global Imbalances: Some Conventional Views Reconsidered

By Guy Meredith

Book information

Publisher
International Monetary Fund
Year
2007
ISBN
9781452769301, 9781451865684
LCC
HF1014 -- .M47 2007eb
Language
english
Format
EPUB
Filesize
1 MB (1433597 bytes)
Series
IMF Working Papers
Edition
1
Pages
56\0
Time added
2023-08-25 23:54:51
Balance of trade -- United States. ; DebtsExternal -- United States.

Description

We use a general-equilibrium model to explain the rise in global trade and payments imbalances since the mid-1990s, and then to construct adjustment paths to a steady state. Assuming that the shocks giving rise to the imbalances do not suddenly reverse, simulated movements in the U.S. trade deficit and exchange rate are smaller and more gradual than suggested by partial-equilibrium analyses. An important factor reducing the size of the adjustments is a simulated real interest rate on U.S. external liabilities that is below both the interest rate on external assets and the U.S. real economic growth rate. In addition, the adjustment takes place over an extended period without significantly raising the share of U.S. assets in foreign portfolios, in part because depreciation of the dollar requires continued foreign accumulation of U.S. assets just to keep their portfolio share constant.

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